Poll: Trump and Biden deadlocked with Georgia voters
ATLANTA — President Joe Biden is neck and neck with former President Donald Trump in Georgia one year ahead of the 2024 election in a new Atlanta JournalConstitution poll that highlights the Democrat’s struggle to recreate the coalition of diverse liberal voters and moderate independents who powered his narrow 2020 win.
The two are essentially tied, with Trump at 45% and Biden at 44% — within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Beyond the close dynamics of a potential rematch, the results illuminate other vulnerabilities that have dogged Biden’s campaign in a pivotal 2024 battleground.
Only about 30% of independent voters back Biden’s bid for a second term, while an additional one-fifth are undecided. Independents were a cornerstone of Biden’s base in 2020, when polls showed a clear majority supported his White House run.
And Biden has yet to consolidate the backing of Black Georgians, the bulwark of the Democratic electorate. Some 78% say they’ll vote for Biden next year, while 12% are behind Trump. Democrats in Georgia generally tally at least 90% support from Black voters.
“I absolutely worry Biden is too old. I don’t know if he knows what’s going on,” said Zina Mulbah, a city of South Fulton engineer who counts himself among Trump’s Black supporters. “He needs to rest and enjoy his retirement. Let’s put someone there who can run the country.”
Trump is not without significant problems of his own. Even as he retains rock-solid support among most GOP voters, about 70% of Georgians say the election-interference charges he faces in Fulton County are serious — including roughly 40% of Republicans and most independents.
And nearly 40% of Republicans say they won’t vote for a political candidate convicted by a jury of a felony crime, heightening the political consequences of the 91 felony charges Trump faces in Georgia and three other jurisdictions.
“To be perfectly honest, I don’t believe that I will ever vote for Trump. I did before, and I think he did a better job than he’s getting credit for,” said Carol Page, a Duluth retiree. “But I don’t care for what he’s done since he lost. Trump should have bowed out gracefully.”
Overall, about twothirds of Georgians say a felony conviction should be a deal-breaker for a presidential contender. And nearly 70% of Georgians say Trump shouldn’t have pressed Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and other state officials to overturn his 2020 defeat.
SHARP DIVIDES
The poll shows Biden and Trump are both unpopular, a sign that many voters dread a rematch between the two rivals. About 55% of Georgia voters give the Democratic incumbent unfavorable reviews while 57% have a poor impression of his Republican challenger.
Yet national and state polls point to another Biden-Trump contest in 2024 with Georgia again playing a central role. After Biden became the first Democratic nominee to capture Georgia since 1992, both parties see the state as one of just a handful of competitive battlegrounds in next year’s White House race.
Count Linda Hatcher of Floyd County among the Biden backers who believe the concerns about his age — the president would be 82 at the start of a second term — and his agenda are overblown. She singled out Biden’s efforts to lower costs for prescription drugs and work across the aisle with Republicans.
“I like that he’s put some class back in our No. 1 office,” she said of Biden. “I don’t know what everybody is complaining about. I think it’s been fine.”
Republican voters, meanwhile, voiced a range of concerns about Biden’s competence. Dawn Nguyen of DeKalb County began listing her issues with Biden before she stopped herself.
“Everything about President Biden concerns me,” said Nguyen, who owns a trucking firm. “You name it, that’s it. His age, his health, his standpoints. I’m really worried if he gets elected again.”
The race is also deadlocked in hypothetical matchups between Biden and two other Republicans who are badly trailing Trump in polls of likely GOP primary voters: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. (Haley fared slightly better with women than the other GOP candidates.)