A BIG RED WARNING FLAG

The biggest threat to Joe Biden’s re-election is not defection, it’s discouragement.

Sure, some voters who backed Biden in 2020 will switch to Donald Trump, the virtually certain Republican nominee. But the president’s real problem will be the disillusioned Democrats who stay home or support a thirdparty candidate.

Recent polling highlights the critical importance of the Discouragement Factor. In an ABC poll, 76% of all voters say that the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 62% of Democrats say they’d like to replace Biden at the top of their ticket. The landscape is starting to resemble 2016, when lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton — particularly among leftists, who seldom miss a chance to commit political suicide — helped put Donald Trump in the White House.

A recent New York Times poll showed Biden trailing Trump in five of the six most vital swing states — all of which he won in 2020 — and the most powerful force fueling this Democratic dismay is the economy.

In the latest Washington Post/ ABC survey, 44% say they are actually worse off than when Biden became president, the highest level of negativity since 1986. Only 30% approve of his handling of the economy, and the two most damaging words are “gas” and “groceries.”

The second major factor fomenting voter frustration is Biden’s age. He’ll be 81 this month, and in the swing state survey, 71% said he was too old to be president, and 62% doubted his mental acuity. Yes, Trump is 77, a certifiable liar and moral reprobate, but he comes across as a vigorous and energetic reprobate.

The Discouragement Factor seems especially damaging with two crucial groups, and the first is Black voters. Of the swing state voters, 22% said they now support Trump, who won only 8% three years ago, and one main reason is that many Black families are suffering the same economic hardships as everyone else, only more so. Eighty percent rate the economy as “only fair” or “poor,” and they blame the incumbent president.

A second group with fraying loyalties is young people, who backed Biden by 60 to 36 in 2020 but gave him only a bare majority in the swing state survey. John Della Volpe, a Harvard-based pollster who worked for Biden in 2020, argues that the Discouragement Factor, which was already rising among Gen Zers and millennials, has been aggravated by Biden’s tilt toward Israel in its war with Gaza.

“Most, if not all, of these progressive voters still won’t embrace Mr. Trump, to be sure,” he wrote in the Times. “But if they swing from being ardent Biden voters in 2020 to being skeptical, frustrated or forlorn voters in 2024, it’s the president who will pay the bigger price.”

If those frustrated and forlorn young people do decide to vote, Democrats fear they’ll turn to third party candidates, who not only helped defeat Clinton in 2016 but Al Gore in 2000. A centrist group called No Labels is trying to secure spots on state ballots, although they don’t have a candidate. Left-wing activist Cornell West is running as an independent. So is the real wild card, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has a Democratic brand name but hard-right policies, especially focused on vaccine denialism.

Polling indicates he’d hurt Biden in some states and Trump in others. But since Trumpers are more solidly committed than Biden supporters, a magnetic third option likely poses a bigger threat to the Democrats.

The election is a year away. Democrats will spend a great deal of time and money trying to remind voters of what they don’t like about Trump. But for now, the Discouragement Factor looks like a big red warning flag for Team Biden.