BIDEN PROBLEM: HE’S FALLEN AND HE CAN’T GET UP
In an interview with the Financial Times, longtime Washington political analyst Charlie Cook noted that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has been stuck below 50% for a long time — 2 1/2 years — and shows no signs of rising above 50% anytime soon. “There seems to be virtually no elasticity there,” Cook told the paper. “I wonder whether people have just changed the channel — they’ve just written him off.”
To understand what Cook said about “elasticity,” look at the Gallup President Job Approval Center. Biden started his presidency in January 2021 with a 57% approval rating. He stayed around that level until the beginning of summer, and then the slide began. By July 2021, Biden fell below 50% for the first time and has never returned. He fell below 40% in July 2022, and is at 39% today.
For 2 1/2 years, Biden’s job approval has bounced around in a roughly 8-point range between highs in the mid 40s and lows in the high 30s. That’s what Cook meant about lack of elasticity — Biden doesn’t seem to go up and down in relation to his accomplishments or lack of accomplishments. He just sort of sits there, like voters have written him off.
The great hope of Biden partisans is that he will rise in the polls as November’s election approaches, as Barack Obama did in 2012. It seems safe to say — although not guaranteed — that his polls will increase in September and October, no matter who he is facing as a Republican opponent. That just generally happens as Democrats and Republicans dig into their partisan positions with an election approaching.
What about Trump? The former president lost the 2020 popular vote by millions, but came fairly close in the Electoral College, losing three key states — Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — by a combined total of about 45,000 votes. Trump’s trajectory in the Gallup Poll was different from Biden’s and Obama’s. Taking office in January 2017, he started low, at 44% approval, and fell to 36% by August. That was his low point. On the other end, Trump rose to 48% in February 2020 and 49% in May 2020. But in the last week before the 2020 election, Trump dipped to 45%, compared to Obama’s 52% at the same time in 2012. That was the difference.
Today, Biden is closer to Trump territory — actually, in December, he was six points below where Trump was at the same time in his presidency — than to Obama. To win in November, Biden will have to stage an energetic recovery.
Everybody knows the reasons for Biden’s unpopularity. Majorities in both parties think the 81 year-old president is too old for a second term. Biden-era inflation has made going to the grocery store an ordeal for millions of Americans. The world seems to be blowing up — Ukraine, the Middle East — which has many Americans worried that more might be on the way if Biden remains in the Oval Office.
Biden can only do so much to recover. His campaign and allies in the media are desperately trying to talk up the economy.
Finally, the one thing that Biden absolutely, positively, unquestionably cannot do is get any younger. Americans have watched in real time as the president slowed down in front of them. He shuffles. His voice sounds weak. Anyone who has ever had an elderly relative — and that is about everyone — knows what is going on.
The White House, the Biden campaign and the Democratic Party know they are just one serious health episode away from a crisis in which they have to find a new presidential candidate in an election year.
That doesn’t mean Biden can’t make it to November and win re-election. It could happen, especially in what promises to be the most volatile presidential campaign in anybody’s memory. But Biden’s current situation — polls, age, job performance — just doesn’t look good. He has fallen so badly that getting up again will be a very difficult proposition.