TRUMP’S IOWA ‘LANDSLIDE’? ADD CONTEXT
According to reporting, Donald Trump took the Iowa Republican Caucus by landslide and storm.
This was CNN’s headline: “Trump’s landslide Iowa win is a stunning show of strength after leaving Washington in disgrace.”
The New York Times likewise touted Trump’s “landslide” win “as voters looked past his mounting legal jeopardy and embraced his vision of vengeful disruption.”
Here’s one more from The Guardian: “Iowa Republicans showed up on 15 January in force for Donald Trump, voting overwhelmingly in the nation’s first primary for the former president, whose grip on his party has only deepened as he weathers numerous lawsuits and 91 felony charges relating to his business dealings and involvement in attempts to overturn the 2020 election.”
At least these reports didn’t ignore Trump’s past and present danger. But to characterize the Iowa outcome as “landslide” or show of “force” or done deal is a disservice to Americans.
Where’s the context?
Iowa’s turnout for the Republican caucus was 110,000 voters.
110,000 voters. That’s all who showed up.
And that measly turnout was considerably lower than in 2016 when 186,932 Iowans voted — mostly for then Bible-thumping candidate Ted Cruz.
What’s more, Iowa is not a typical state. It shouldn’t be considered anything of a bellwether — except perhaps for evangelical support.
As The Guardian noted: “Iowa is more racially homogeneous than the rest of the US — more than 85% of Iowans identify as white, and Black people make up only about 4% of the population, compared with the national average of 71% and 12%.”
Consider, too, that Republican caucuses are largely party meetings, requiring party membership to participate and consisting of an exclusively in-person vote.
But numbers offer the best context of all. Of Iowa’s 3.2 million population, 2.2 million are registered voters.
I say again — 110,000 voters showed up. And 51% of 110,000 voters, 56,260 — about the population of 10 Dunlaps — wrote Donald Trump’s name on their blank ballots.
Do the math: That 110,000 constitutes a voter turnout of about 5%. Meaning that only about 2.5% of Iowa’s registered voters voted for Trump while just over 44,000 voted either for Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.
Still, even The Guardian stated that voters “flocked” to the Iowa polls in midJanuary “even in extreme cold.”
No. A mere 110,000 voters is not flocking. And 56,260 votes for Trump is not a show of strength.
Context is a wonderful thing. It’s too bad many news organizations — and therefore many Americans — have forgotten about it.