Value judgment
Free agency a chance to see where running backs stand
NASHVILLE — Derrick Henry is back in the gym, eager to prove that 30 is just a number — and one that shouldn’t affect the four-time Pro Bowl selection’s value on the NFL’s open market.
The same player who organized a group chat among the league’s top running backs last summer is about to find out exactly what teams are willing to pay for proven experience at that position. Henry turned 30 years old on Jan. 4, days before what might have been his final game with the Tennessee Titans, who selected the former Alabama Crimson Tide standout with a second-round pick in the 2016 NFL draft.
And Henry, a two-time NFL rushing champion, has company with fellow stars such as Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard — the three running backs hit with franchise tags in 2023 — also hitting free agency. Barkley didn’t sign his tag and wound up playing last season for $10.1 million for the New York Giants, who drafted him second overall in 2018. The other were 2019 draft picks who have remained with the teams that selected them so far, but Jacobs’ time with the Las Vegas Raiders and Pollard’s days with the Dallas Cowboys are over unless they wind up re-signing with those teams after exploring free agency.
So will these running backs find big contracts when the market officially opens next week?
Or will they have to be patient and choosy or simply have to settle for less?
“We’re all going to find out,” Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio said. “Free agency is just — it’s what does the market tell you? And then any player, what are you willing to pay that player commensurate with their role?”
The cost of free agents changes every March with the start of each new NFL business year. Positions get slotted into tiers of value, and running backs have been hit the hardest in recent years with less expensive replacements available. Only kickers and punters are paid less on average by position than running backs, whose bodies take crunching hits every handoff and block that makes the clock seem to tick faster on their professional careers.
No NFL team in the offseason gave itself more negotiating time with either a franchise or transition tag on a running back who would have cost a mere $9.7 million for 2024. Again, only kickers and punters had a lower value.
Of the nine total tags since the start of the offseason, seven went to defensive players.
So now a group of experienced and talented players is poised to hit the market as free agents.
“There’s some good names there,” Giants GM Joe Schoen said last week at the NFL’s annual scouting combine in Indianapolis. “I mean, it’s a little bit of a saturated market. There are some guys at different ages that have had success, there’s some older guys that have had some success. So it’s a diverse group.”
Age isn’t a factor for Jacobs at just 26, but he is coming off his worst season, having rushed for only 805 yards, and the Raiders also have Zamir White as they look for a possible replacement for Jacobs.
“The talent pool at that position in free agency is relatively high,” Raiders GM Tom Telesco said.
Even with the jump in the NFL salary cap for 2024, running backs may be forced to play a waiting game.
One thing in their favor is that the pool for running backs in April’s draft is a bit shallow, with only 12 prospects at the position projected as fifth-round picks or better out of 35 graded before the combine.
Incoming rookie running backs have noticed the low value the NFL has placed on their position. Blake Corum, who helped Michigan win the national championship this past season, said it’s up to running backs to fix that narrative by being game-changing players.
“Running backs obviously want to get paid more,” Corum said, adding that “you can only control the controllables, and that’s the way I look at it, so I’m not so worried about it.”
Minnesota Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that just because the market price hasn’t risen along with that for other positions doesn’t negate the impact of good running backs.
“All it does is take one team, one deal to reset a market and change things,” Adofo-Mensah said. “I’m not going to say that it’s not going to be this year, but there’s a lot of exciting options on the market. We’ll take a look at them like we take a look at every position.”
Henry made clear after the Titans’ season ended — short of the playoffs and with Mike Vrabel fired after his sixth year as coach — that he was looking forward to becoming a free agent, essentially for the first time since high school. Henry had agreed to a four-year extension after the Titans placed the franchise tag on him in 2020.
Although he was a workhorse at times for the Titans and is now 30, often cited as the age when running backs begin to noticeably decline, the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner for Alabama started only four games combined over his first two seasons in the NFL while playing behind DeMarco Murray. That puts less overall mileage on the speedy wheels of Henry, who just this past season led the league in carries with 280 and was second in rushing yards with 1,167.
One of only eight NFL players to rush for at least 2,000 yards in a season, Henry is tied for 13th in NFL history with 90 touchdown runs, even with Eric Dickerson and Curtis Martin. He’s also 508 yards from passing Eddie George as the career leading rusher in franchise history for the Titans, who began as the Houston Oilers before moving to Tennessee ahead of the 1997 season.
Whether Henry gets that chance has been the most popular question for Titans GM Ran Carthon. He will go into his second season in Tennessee with a new coach in Brian Callahan and some intriguing potential at running back with Tyjae Spears, who was a big dual threat out of the backfield as a rookie this past season.
“I have a responsibility to build this team long term,” Carthon said. “And like I said, we’ll cross that bridge with Derrick and his team when we get there.”
That time is here. The only question is at what price.