Up in the air
NBA’s postseason puzzle is missing a lot of pieces
Maybe it’s parity.
Maybe it’s chaos.
Either way, the final day of the NBA’s regular season should be wildly intriguing.
The Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder all have a shot at the top spot in the Western Conference. Every seed from No. 2 to No. 8 is up for grabs in the Eastern Conference. Sunday’s slate, with all 30 teams playing, will determine nine seeds, three first-round playoff pairings and three play-in tournament matchups.
“There’s so many possibilities and different things that can happen that just you kind of have to lock in to your team, or you’ll drive yourself crazy watching other games and wishing and hoping,” Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker said. “So, either way, you’re going to match up with somebody, and we have to be ready to do that.”
No games were scheduled for Saturday, giving everybody — coaches, players and observers alike — one last chance to catch their breath. Here’s a primer for what’s ahead.
WHAT WE KNOW
The Boston Celtics are No. 1 in the East and will have homecourt advantage throughout the NBA playoffs. The Los Angeles Clippers are No. 4 in the West and will open the playoffs against the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks. The Chicago Bulls are ninth in the East and will host the Atlanta Hawks, who are 10th, in a play-in elimination game on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Playing their final games of the 2023-24 season on Sunday are the Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons in the East, and the Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers in the West.
Everything else is still up in the air.
WEST 1 THROUGH 3
› Contenders: Denver, Minnesota, Oklahoma City.
› Schedule: Dallas at Oklahoma City, Denver at Memphis, Phoenix at Minnesota.
› Outlook: This is the first time that three teams all have the same record (56-25) with a shot at the No. 1 seed in a conference going into the final day.
The only scenario where Denver gets the No. 1 seed is a win and losses by both Minnesota and Oklahoma City. Minnesota gets the No. 1 seed with a win and a loss by either Denver or Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City gets the No. 1 seed if all three contenders win, if all three contenders lose, or with a win and a Minnesota loss.
› Quotable: “The big exponential jumps come from small incremental steps.” — Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault after his team won Friday, improving its win total by 16 (at least) for the second season in a row.
EAST 2 THROUGH 4
› Contenders: Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks.
› Schedule: Charlotte at Cleveland, Chicago at New York, Milwaukee at Orlando.
› Outlook: It’s simple for Milwaukee in that a win secures the No. 2 seed. Milwaukee would also finish second with a loss, as long as Charlotte and Chicago both win.
New York can get to No. 2 with a win and a Milwaukee loss. Cleveland’s only path to No. 2 is a win and losses by Milwaukee and New York.
› Quotable: “A scouting nightmare. We know we’ll be between 2 and 4. That’s a certainty. Other than that, we don’t know anything. … The good news is, no matter what, we’ll be at home for Game 1.” — Milwaukee coach Doc Rivers
EAST 5 THROUGH 8
› Contenders: Orlando, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat.
› Schedule: Atlanta at Indiana, Brooklyn at Philadelphia, Milwaukee at Orlando, Toronto at Miami.
› Outlook: Truly bonkers. All four teams have a shot at finishing fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth. Obviously, two will get to skip the play-in tournament entirely and go straight to the playoffs.
Orlando gets to do that with a win. Its seed would be No. 5 with a win and Indiana win, or with a win and victories by both Atlanta and Brooklyn, or if all four teams in the mix lose.
Indiana is also in the playoffs with a win. Its seed would be No. 5 with a win and an Orlando loss.
Philadelphia’s only path to No. 5 is a win and an Indiana loss
Miami (which got to the NBA Finals last year after making the playoffs via the play-in route) has one path to No. 5: a win and losses for Atlanta, Indiana and Philadelphia. Miami could get to No. 6 with a win, an Orlando loss and Indiana and Philadelphia combining to go 1-1 on Sunday.
› Quotable: “We control our own destiny still.” — Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley after Friday night’s loss to Philadelphia.
WEST 6 AND 7
› Contenders: New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns.
› Schedule: Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans, Phoenix at Minnesota.
› Outlook: For Phoenix to get to No. 6, it must win and New Orleans must lose. Anything else would mean Phoenix is No. 7 and headed to the play-in tournament, while New Orleans is No. 6 and going directly to the playoffs.
› Quotable: “Go Lakers.” — Phoenix guard Devin Booker.
WEST 8 THROUGH 10
› Contenders: Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors.
› Schedule: Lakers at New Orleans, Portland at Sacramento, Utah at Golden State.
› Outlook: If the Lakers win, they’re No. 8. Even if they don’t, they would wind up with the same seed if Golden State and Sacramento both lose as well.
Golden State’s lone path to No. 8 is a win plus victories by Portland and Utah. Golden State can get to No. 9 and host one play-in game with a win and a loss by either the Lakers or Sacramento.
Sacramento gets to No. 8 with a win and a Lakers loss.
› Quotable: “Of course, seeds matter. But wherever you fall, you take that challenge.” — Lakers forward LeBron James.
RACE TO THE BOTTOM
No matter what happens Sunday, the Pistons and Wizards will both finish with winning percentages under .200.
This is the fifth season in NBA history when two teams have been that bad, but the first since the Nets and the Timberwolves pulled off the ignominious feat in 2009-10. It also happened in 1998-99 (Clippers and Grizzlies), 1997-98 (Nuggets and Raptors) and 1996-97 (Celtics and Grizzlies).
DRAFT IMPLICATIONS
Detroit, Washington and the third-worst team in the league will have the best chance of winning next month’s draft lottery at 14% apiece. If Charlotte loses Sunday, it’s assured of having a 14% chance as well.
A loss doesn’t guarantee the No. 1 pick for Charlotte, of course, but a win raises the chances it could emerge from the lottery outside the top three and have its first pick fall back as far as ninth.