QUESTIONS BEFORE WE START?
With season opener vs. 49ers one week away, our Bears experts break down most pressing issues facing team in its first year under new leadership
Where will Justin Fields rank among NFL quarterbacks this year?
Finley: As a second-year starter on a run-first team — sound familiar? — the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts ranked 27th with 209.6 passing yards per game, 22nd with an 87.2 passer rating and led all quarterbacks with 52.3 rushing yards per game last year. I expect a similar season out of Fields. He has more talent than Hurts — especially when it comes to deep throws — but less talent around him.
Lieser: Around 20th among the 32 starters. That’s about where Mitch Trubisky was in his second season, too, in 2018. The big question for general manager Ryan Poles is whether that’s the ceiling on what Fields can do or an incremental step toward cracking the top 10 in 2023.
Potash: Middle of the pack — 16th in passer rating.
Even without a stellar wide receiver corps, Fields will make good use of his tight ends and running backs — and his own legs — in Luke Getsy’s offense. He’ll have more high moments, such as the second half of the Steelers’ game, and fewer low moments, such as the nine-sack disaster against the Browns, but a lot in between. Overall, he’ll make enough progress to keep hope alive that reinforcements in 2023 will lead to a giant leap.
Did Ryan Poles do enough this offseason?
Finley: Absolutely not. He needed to give Fields better receivers to throw to and more established blockers in order for the GM to properly evaluate his quarterback. Only the Ravens — whose rushing offense resembles a military academy more than it does, say, the Rams — have spent less cap space on receivers than the Bears this season. Only seven teams have spent less on the offensive line.
Lieser: Not quite, but it must be taken into account that he took over a sub-.500 team with salary-cap problems and depleted draft assets. A major teardown was necessary before he could really begin to build. Pass rusher Khalil Mack would’ve helped this season, for example, but the financial relief and draft picks the Bears got by trading him were more important in the long run. The biggest objection to Poles’ offseason is that he did not provide concrete help for Fields at wide receiver and on the offensive line. He believes he did, but it takes a lot of faith to agree.
Potash: Yes, considering the limited resources he had. His biggest job was cleaning house, and he did that well — just 19 of the 77 players he inherited from former general manager Ryan Pace are currently on the 53-man roster. You can argue he should have gone offense in the draft, but cornerback Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker already look ready to make an impact. Then again, if Trubisky turns George Pickens into a superstar, it won’t reflect well on Poles.
The most glaring need is . . .
Finley: Offensive line. Fields was sacked on 11.8% of his dropbacks last year, the highest rate in the NFL. Since 2000, only eight quarterbacks to attempt 250 or more passes in a season have been sacked more often. The Bears signed exactly one veteran who is currently a starter to try to fix the line — and Lucas Patrick needed thumb surgery in the first week of camp.
Lieser: Cornerback, still. A good defense needs at least three. Right now, Jaylon Johnson is the only sure thing. The Bears are hoping Gordon makes an instant impact and Kindle Vildor can turn it around after being benched last season.
Potash: A wide receiver who can take the pressure off Darnell Mooney. The Bears will diversify their passing offense with Cole Kmet, David Montgomery and others, but they need another dependable downfield target for Fields. With modest candidates, the pressure is on Getsy’s offense to create the opportunity for someone to fill that void.
A rookie who will make the biggest impact is ...
Finley: Receiver Velus Jones has the most obvious opportunity — he can inject speed and skill into the team’s worst position group. When Poles defended his offensive roster this week, he mentioned three people by name: Mooney, Kmet and Jones, the third-round pick from Tennessee.
Lieser: Gordon. He’s pivotal. If he’s as good as the Bears say he is, that changes a lot about their shaky secondary. Poles said his staff decided in pre-draft preparation that it was completely unrealistic to think he still would be available at No. 39 overall. He came from a Washington program known for producing great cornerbacks and has experience playing inside and outside.
Potash: Brisker. He looked the part on paper as a good fit for coach Matt Eberflus’ defense and didn’t disappoint in training camp or his lone preseason game. He figures to get a lot of opportunities to make plays in this defense.
The team MVP will be ...
Finley: Defensive end Robert Quinn — if the Bears keep him all season. Quinn is coming off a franchise-record 18½ sacks and seems out of place on a rebuilding team. If a championship contender loses a pass rusher to injury before the trade deadline, Poles might be tempted to see what he could get in a trade.
Lieser: Roquan Smith. He’s a do-it-all linebacker who is about to enjoy the perfect intersection of stepping into his prime and shifting into a role that maximizes his strengths. He’s going to have a monster season. And he’ll get a monster contract, but it might not be with the Bears.
Potash: Smith. The defense will be the Bears’ anchor, especially early, and Smith is an elite player who should blossom in the 4-3 scheme under Eberflus and defensive coordinator Alan Williams. The threetechnique and slot corner are particularly valuable in this defense, so keep an eye on Justin Jones and Gordon, as well.
How will Roquan Smith fare in a prove-it year?
Finley: He’ll earn his first Pro Bowl berth in February and a contract extension in March.
Lieser: He will, indeed, prove it. But there shouldn’t really be anything for him to prove at this point. He’s a fifth-year veteran who has lived up to the hype of being the No. 8 pick. He’s good against the run or in pass coverage, he’s a dangerous pass rusher and he’s smart.
Potash: Every factor points toward him reaching another level in this defense. He’s in his prime at 25. He’s coming off a second consecutive All-Pro season. He’s in a position in Eberflus’ defense where Shaquille Leonard blossomed into an AllPro and Defensive Rookie of the Year in his first season in 2018. And of course, he’s motivated.
What will the Bears’ record be in Matt Eberflus’ debut season?
Finley: 6-11. Eberflus’ dedication to detail has turned the Bears into a try-hard team, which is sometimes used as a pejorative in the NFL. Ordinarily, that effort level would be worth an extra win or two toward the end of the season, when some teams have little to play for. Four of the five teams the Bears play in December and January will be motivated by a playoff push, though: the Packers, Eagles, Bills and Vikings.
Lieser: 5-12. It’s difficult to predict something like that because so much will change for the Bears and their opponents. A November game that looks unwinnable now might have a completely different vibe by the time they get there. The Bears will struggle to win with a stripped-down roster, but they need to show signs that they're headed the right way regardless.
Potash: 6-11, with the arrow pointing up heading into 2023. After a promising preseason of progress, reality figures to hit the Bears in the regular season. But with a playable schedule and an offensive scheme that gives Fields room to grow, the Bears are more likely to be a surprise team this year than a disappointing one.