Seek diplomatic solution for Ukraine
Now that some of our politicians are demanding that we do something — anything — about the situation in the Ukraine, here are a few inconvenient truths that are worth remembering before we formally reignite the Cold War:
1. In 1988, the United States shot down a civilian Iranian airliner (Flight 655) after mistaking it for a hostile military aircraft. It was a tragic mistake, but that’s what it was. The Malaysian airliner may well prove to tell a similar tale — tragic, but not the stuff of future wars.
2. When the U.S.S.R. imploded, there was a tacit international understanding of sorts that the Ukraine, being a pluralistic society, would remain more or less unaligned, a buffer between East and West. The West seems to have forgotten this in recent years, and this contributed enormously to the current crisis.
3. The West set a precedent by supporting the secession of Kosovo from Serbia. Russia and China, being afraid of the integrity of their own borders, warned us then that supporting the breakup would one day return to haunt us all. That day is today.
4. There are no “good guys” for us to support in the Ukrainian political system, only bad choices and worse ones.
At this point in time, these are the plays that we can theoretically make with the hand that we have been dealt:
1. Search for a diplomatic road back to a genuinely non-aligned Ukraine, probably with that provision written formally into its Constitution. An eastern Switzerland of sorts, probably minus the Crimea, which has historically functioned as Russia’s equivalent of Guantanamo Bay. This would be the ideal solution but also the most difficult given the current political environment.
2. Grudgingly accept the formal partition of the Ukraine. That danger here is that such a partition would set yet another precedent, and it should give Russia pause as well given the problems within its borders.
3. Escalate the sanctions and reignite a new Cold War. The recent establishment of a new international development bank by the BRICS may be a signal that they expect this to be our most probable action. Since one of these countries, China, is colloquially known as our banker, we should think carefully before taking that step.
4. Totally disengage. A theoretical option, but not a realistic one.
Option (1), as difficult as it is, would be the least of evils.
Bill Tilford, North Park