DOWN TO BUSINESS
New Early& Often poll reveals voters like business over politics in dead- heat race for governor between Quinn and Rauner
Gov. Pat Quinn may have an advantage over his opponent when it comes to political savvy, but it’s Republican Bruce Rauner’s business background that’s resonating with voters, a new Early & Often/ We Ask America poll suggests.
The survey, conducted Oct. 8, shows Quinn and Rauner in a statistical dead heat with just over three weeks before Election Day.
Quinn had 44.5 percent to Rauner’s 41 percent — but that’s within the poll’s margin of error.
When asked which was more important in a gubernatorial candidate, 41 percent chose having business experience, 24 percent picked a political background, 25 percent said both and 8 percent said neither.
However, the answers differed sharply depending on where people lived.
And that could be a boost to Quinn, who is counting on the city of Chicago vote to propel him over Rauner on Nov. 4.
Of those who reside in the city, 38 percent said they found a gubernatorial candidate with a political background more appealing, while 21 percent preferred a business background.
The results flip- flopped downstate: 51 percent said business trumps politics and just 16 percent felt political maturity was more important.
“It shows that in Chicago and somewhat in suburban Cook, that they are people that grow up in politics. They’re used to ward politics. They think that a political background is a real strong thing and the thought of an outsider is not appealing,” said pollster Gregg Durham. “The farther you get away from Chicago, the stronger the opposite prevails.”
Each candidate has slammed the other’s background as dangerous to the state’s future. Rauner has cast Quinn’s time in office as evidence of having too- cozy, corrupt ties with clout- heavy power brokers in state government. Quinn, meanwhile, has gone after Rauner’s business track record, pointing to bankruptcies, lawsuits, criminal investigations and lack of diversity hiring.
Since an August poll, Rauner’s numbers with women have slipped some. He is now five percentage points behind Quinn among women voters, instead of two percentage points as he was earlier.
In the overall head- tohead race, the survey showed Quinn having an edge over Rauner of just under 3.5 percentage points — within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. That means with less than a month before Election Day, the two are neck and neck.
“This race will be very close as we have said all along, and every single vote counts,” said Quinn spokeswoman Brooke Anderson. “This is about what kind of values and leadership will be in the Governor’s Office for the next four years — will the people of Illinois have a champion who makes the tough decisions and fights for the middle class like Gov. Quinn does? Or will they have someone like billionaire Bruce Rauner who fights for himself and his wealthy friends at the expense of everyone else? People have a very clear choice to make.”
The automated poll measured responses from 1,051 likely Illinois voters, with 28.9 percent of the sample off of cellphones.
“We’ve always expected the polls to bounce back and forth, but it’s clear voters are ready for a clean break from 12 years of failure under Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn,” said Mike Schrimpf, a Rauner spokesman.
“Bruce Rauner is the change agent who will deliver more jobs, lower taxes and better schools. Whether you’re male or female, in Chicago or the suburbs, you know Bruce is the only candidate who is independent of the special interests and will deliver on the issues you care about.”
Those queried last week considered Rauner the reform candidate over Quinn — a similar finding to what Early & Often reported in August. However, Rauner’s reform numbers have slipped nine percentage points since Early & Often posed that question in August. Then, 46 percent picked Rauner as the reformer, and 21 percent chose Quinn. Last week, 37 percent said Rauner was the reformer and 26 percent said Quinn was.
“At the very least, they see Mr. Rauner as the man who’s going to shake up Springfield,” Durham says, referencing one of Rauner’s campaign mottos. “However, Pat Quinn is leading, so perhaps the ability to reform is not the most important issue.”
The TV debates also ranked high with voters, although those results came with a caveat.
More than 60 percent of those surveyed said they planned to watch a gubernatorial debate before the Nov. 4 election.
But Durham said: “they’re displaying good citizenship more than being forthcoming,” pointing out that when he asks people if they planned to vote, more than 90 percent say “yes.” Voter turnout, however, reflects far less than half that many actually show up to the polls.
In addition to the first debate last week, there are two more televised meet- ups scheduled over the next two weeks. Durham said generally in statewide races, he’s not seen a debate performance significantly influence voters. Unless, he adds, there’s a major stumble.
“If one of them pulls a real boner, then you sit there and say: ‘ We have a problem here,’” says Durham. “It’s usually a bad performance that moves the needle, not the good performance.”