Delivering when it counts
No surprise LCS teams hit better with runners in scoring position than overall
There’s a tendency in baseball for teams to hit slightly better with runners in scoring position than they do overall. The American League batting average was .253 this season with a .706 OPS overall, but those numbers increased to .256 and .724 with runners in scoring position. National Leaguers rose from .249 and .694 overall to .251 and .712 with runners in scoring position.
All four teams playing in the league championship series fit that pattern. In the AL, the Royals rose from .253 and .690 to .271 and .732 and the Orioles from .256 and .734 to .268 and .772. In the NL, the Giants rose from .255 and .699 to .267 and .735 and the Cardinals from .253 and .689 to .254 and .701.
None of that is outlandish. The biggest OPS jump was by the Royals, whose OPS with runners in scoring position was 42 points higher than their overall OPS. With the league average being an 18- point gain in OPS with runners in scoring position, that puts the Royals in the high- normal section of the spectrum, but their gain is not otherworldly.
For otherworldly, we can look back a season to the 2013 Cardinals, who performed at All-Star level as a team with runners in scoring position. Overall, the Cardianls hit .269 with a .733 OPS, both well above the league averages of .251 and .703. With runners in scoring position, they turned into terrors at the plate with a .330 batting average and an .865 OPS.
There were only 10 NL players last season with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title who had OPSes higher than .865. The ringleader was Cardinals first baseman/ outfielder Allen Craig, who had a strong age- 28 season with a .315 batting average and an .830 OPS. But with runners in scoring position, he was Superman at .454 and 1.138.
When people perform so far outside the norm, whether in baseball or any almost anything else, there’s usually an element of chance involved. The most likely event from that point forward is performance closer to normal in what statisticians call ‘‘ regression to the mean.’’
Craig, who was traded to the Red Sox in July in the deal that brought pitcher John Lackey to the Cardinals, collapsed to a .216 batting average and a .625 OPS with runners in scoring position this season. But his overall offense also collapsed, to .215 and .594. That left him with numbers that were a modest amount higher with runners in scoring position, the same pattern as major- league averages.
That all four LCS teams fit the pattern and hit a bit higher with runners in scoring position isn’t a surprise; it’s normal. And when teams step far outside the pattern, they nearly always come back toward the norm with extended play.