Results from pitching metrics raise a few questions with Sox staff
Projection systems see more dominance for ace lefthander Chris Sale. But for the other members of the Sox’ ‘‘ Big Three,’’ projections are more cautious.
When projection systems look at pitchers’ metrics, they see more dominance for White Sox ace left- hander Chris Sale. Whether you’re looking at a 2.89 ERA and 3.03 FIP ( fielding in dependent pitching) on the ZIPS projection at Fangraphs. com or a 2.79 ERA and 3.04 FRA (‘‘ fair run average’’) in the PECOTA system at BaseballProspectus.com, you’re seeing Cy Young contender numbers.
But for the other members of the Sox’ ‘‘ Big Three’’ starting pitchers, projections are more cautious. Left- hander Jose Quintana, who posted a 3.32 ERA and 2.81 FIP last season, projects to a 3.88 ERA and 3.62 FIP for 2015 on ZIPS and to a 3.76 ERA and 4.02 FRA on PECOTA.
Right- hander Jeff Samardzija had a 2.99 ERA and 3.20 FIP while splitting time between the Cubs and Athletics last season, but he projects to a 3.90 ERA and 3.64 FIP on ZIPS and to a 4.12 ERA, 4.47 FRA on PECOTA.
In Quintana’s case, it’s partly a matter of projection systems wanting to see him do it again. A player’s full career trajectory is taken into account, usually with special emphasis on the last three seasons. Last season was Quintana’s third, so his 3.76 ERA and 4.23 FIP of 2012 and 3.51 ERA and 3.81 FIP of 2013 are influencing the projections.
Last season, 5.1 percent of the fly balls Quintana allowed were home runs, compared with 10.5 percent in 2012 and 10.2 percent in 2013. Until he does that again, projections will show homers allowed rising, and ZIPS projects an increase from 0.45 to 0.81 homers per nine innings.
Samardzija also showed a decline in homers as a percentage of the fly balls he allowed. After his rate reached 12.8 percent in 2012 and 13.3 percent in 2013, it dropped to 10.6 percent last season.
In addition, his ground- ball percentage has been increasing, and that brings down his overall rate of homers allowed. Last season, 50.2 percent of batted balls against him were grounders, compared with 48.2 percent in 2013 and 46.2 percent in his career.
That’s all encouraging, but Samardzija spent the second half of last season in an A’s ballpark that decreases homers and now is coming to U. S. Cellular Field, which is a good home- run park. Last season, the A’s and their opponents homered 90 percent as often in home games as in away games; the White Sox and their opponents homered 105 percent as often in the Cell.
Instead of the 0.82 homers per nine innings Samardzija allowed last season, ZIPS projects an increase to 1.11. There are lots of other factors, including coming to a team whose defense was minus- 56 in runs saved last season after pitching for the A’s ( plus- 32) and Cubs ( minus- 23).
Sox fans certainly can hope for continued improvement from Quintana at age 26 and high performance from Samardzija, who turned 30 in January. The numbers just raise a few caution flags.