Russian behavior in Syria looks familiar
Its denials, deceptions slowed opposition to its annexation of Crimea
If its role in fomenting conflict in eastern Ukraine is a guide, Russia has some new tricks in store for Syrian rebels and their allies.
Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war is similar in some ways to its intervention in eastern Ukraine, where it exploited ethnic conflict, provided weapons, employed volunteers and irregular forces and tried to deceive the West about its intentions.
That approach is what Russia’s chief of the general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, calls “new generation warfare.”
The Russian military doctrine “combines low-end, hidden state involvement with high-end, direct, even braggadocio, superpower involvement,” said Phillip Karber, president of the Potomac Foundation military consultancy. Karber has briefed U.S. military leaders on Russia’s military behavior in the Ukraine conflict, based on observations from more than a dozen field visits.
Despite evidence of direct Russian participation in the revolt by separatists in eastern Ukraine provided by NATO, the U.S. military, international observers and news outlets, Russia continues to deny it. “The number of times this question is asked will not affect the answer that (the) Kremlin has,” said Ilya Timokhov, a Ukraine analyst at the Russian Embassy in Washington.
The role of deceit and subterfuge in the new Russian way of war means op- ponents don’t always know when Russia has entered a conflict, how many resources are involved or what its goal is, Karber said.
Russia’s military buildup in Syria and its first airstrikes over a week ago were met with confusion in the USA. Secretary of State John Kerry called Russia’s foreign minister several times to seek clarity on Russia’s plans and goals, which became clear only as Russian strikes began hitting U.S.-backed rebel groups fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a close Russian ally.
In February 2014, Russian soldiers appeared on the streets of Ukraine’s Crimea province without insignia on their uniforms, while volunteer fighters claiming to seek independence seized Ukrainian government buildings and held elections that the West called illegitimate.
At first, Russia denied that its forces had seized the province, but Russian President Vladimir Putin, who presided over the annexation of Crimea, acknowledged later that Russian troops were involved. He also made nuclear threats. “It’s best not to mess with us,” he told military cadets in August 2014. “I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers.”
Russia’s air force put on aggressive displays along the edges of NATO airspace during this time. It conducted long-range patrols with its strategic bombers for the first time in decades, buzzed U.S. warships and sent fighter jets to confront NATO aircraft in the Baltics and near the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan.
In Ukraine, Russia launched an organized effort to spread lies through traditional and social media and diplomatic channels. Russia is pursuing a similar approach in Syria, where its diplomats say 90% of anti-Assad forces are terrorists. Russian diplomat Aydar Aganin told USA TODAY all Russian strikes in Syria targeted terrorists.