Chiefs are better than record says
Last week, I wrote with some confidence that the Bears would beat the Oakland Raiders if Jay Cutler played.
I based it on my belief that, at 0-3 and playing at home, the Bears were desperate for a victory and finally were facing a team with a talent level similar to theirs after losing to three superior clubs.
On Sunday, the Bears will find the Kansas City Chiefs in the situation they themselves were in last week with one very notable exception: The Chiefs are more talented than the Bears.
Yes, the Chiefs are 1-3 and have lost three consecutive games. Yes, they rank 29th in total defense and 27th in turnover ratio and tied with the Bears for last in the NFL at 31.3 points per game allowed.
But the 4-0 Denver Broncos, 4-0 Green Bay Packers and 4-0 Cincinnati Bengals— the Chiefs’ last three opponents— can do that to you.
The Chiefs’ defense is a lot better than the numbers suggest. Justin Houston, Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry are all Pro Bowlers still in their primes.
Cornerback Sean Smith should have been in the Pro Bowl last year and rookie Marcus Peters, who is starting on the other corner, is an early candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The game could come down to whether the Bears’ rebuilt offensive line (with Jermon Bushrod out again) can keep the Chiefs’ attacking, blitzing defense from devouring Jay Cutler.
It appears unlikely receiver Alshon Jeffery will play after missing practice Friday, and Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson will find the Chiefs’ DBs a lot harder to separate from than the Raiders’.
Running back Matt Forte is a tough matchup for any defense, but the Chiefs have done a credible job on Eddie Lacy, James Starks and Giovani Bernard the last two weeks, although they couldn’t keep Jeremy Hill out of the end zone.
Alex Smith is as efficient as any quarterback in the game, and with weapons like Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, the Bears’ defense will be tested. But Smith, who is tied with Aaron Rodgers for throwing the fewest interceptions in the NFL since 2010 (36), uncharacteristically has thrown three in four games this season.
Charles is a Forte clone, but he’s faster and quicker in short areas than the Bears’ star.
Kelce is a rising star at tight end, more a receiver than blocker and Maclin is red-hot during the last two weeks (24 catches, 289 yards, one touchdown) after a slow start.
The one potential big edge for the Bears is that the Chiefs’ offensive line has been awful with everyone except Pro Bowl guard Ben Grubbs struggling.
A big performance from the Bears’ front seven might turn this game into a low-scoring defensive struggle. But the Bears have to be careful with Smith, who is more dangerous coming out of the pocket than Cutler.
Coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase were 4-0 against Andy Reid’s Chiefs during the last two seasons. So while the Bears are a very different team than the Broncos, they should be well prepared.
Right now, the Chiefs are due for an explosion. Fans just have to hope it doesn’t happen with the Bears in town.
Hub Arkush is the editor of Chicago Football. Follow him on Twitter @HubArkush.