WARNING: OBJECTS IN MIRROR MIGHT BE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR
Theo Epstein’s front office started its rebuild on the North Side four years ago this fall. Cubs executives stressed the long-term value of moves even as they finally turned their attention to the big-league club last winter. There were no internal expectations that so many things could go so right so quickly to put the Cubs in the National League Championship Series with 101 combined victories. What made it happen? Here are five of the front office’s top decisions made with long-term thinking that had a sudden impact this year:
1. HIRING JOE MADDON
Organizational philosophy/thinking:
This was more about luck after three years of mixed results with two managers as the brass tried to find someone with a balance of command of the clubhouse, experience, communication, appreciation for new ideas/information and the ability to develop and transition prospects to the big leagues. When Maddon became a free agent because of an opt-out clause in his contract with the Rays, the Cubs pounced, signing him to a five-year, $25 million deal.
2015: Maddon’s defining sequence came in back-to-back games against the Giants in August, when he shocked veteran Jason Hammel by pulling him after two walks and just 76 pitches in the fifth inning with a lead (the Cubs won by one), then benched shortstop Starlin Castro in favor of rookie Addison Russell. The Cubs swept the series to overtake them for wild-card playoff position and finished the season on a 41-18 run.
2. TANKING WHOLE SEASONS
Organizational philosophy/thinking:
When strict spending caps for draft and amateur international signings were instituted the offseason Epstein took over, the Cubs couldn’t accelerate their rebuild by overspending deep in the draft to attract high-end, tough-to-sign prospects or to stockpile bigger-ticket international prospects. Alternative plans were to trade veterans for prospects, sign undervalued freeagent pitchers to build value and flip for prospects and, in the process, all but assure poor big-league seasons and higher draft picks (plus bonus allotments).
2015: The resulting fifth-place finishes gave the Cubs the No. 2 overall pick in the 2013 draft and No. 4 in 2014, which turned into Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber. They became playoff gold faster than even the Cubs anticipated. “Kris and Kyle have warped even my sense of where [other prospects] should be sometimes just with how fast they exploded through the system,” top player-development executive Jason McLeod said.”
3. ACQUIRING JAKE ARRIETA FOR A FLIP GUY
Organizational philosophy/thinking:
Using free agency to sign short-term starting pitchers looking to build value, then using them as an important commodity at the trade deadline, allowed the Cubs to turn Scott Feldman into Pedro Strop and Jake Arrieta in 2013. At the time, the Cubs admitted privately that Strop was the pitcher they were most confident would become a piece of the competitive team they envisioned. In their mind, Arrieta had tremendous stuff but even more question marks about whether he would be able to do anything with it in the big leagues.
2015: Arrieta’s emergence as a Cy Young candidate, including the most dominant second half in major-league history, is the biggest reason the Cubs are still playing. His turnaround started almost immediately after the trade with the help of pitching coach Chris Bosio.
4. SIGNING JON LESTER TO A $155 MILLION CONTRACT
Organizational philosophy/thinking:
The Cubs sought a proven, playoff-tested veteran for a pitching staff without one. Lester’s six-year deal was designed to be the rock in the rotation when the team became competitive. They used the $20 million in unused payroll from 2014 to help pay the front end of a hefty bonus, keeping salaries aligned with payroll projections in anticipation of new TV revenues during the backend years of the deal.
2015: Despite a few tough stretches, Lester’s 205 innings and 3.34 ERA were huge factors in keeping afloat a rotation that had little depth and averaged less than 5⅓ innings per start after Arrieta and Lester. His Game 1 start against the Cardinals in the division series was what the Cubs envisioned when they signed him. “We never knew when that start might come,” general manager Jed Hoyer said. “I’m happy it’s in 2015.”
5. PLAYING THE ODDS ON TOMMY JOHN SURGERY, HECTOR RONDON
Organizational philosophy/thinking:
“Tommy John surgery these days has probably a 95 percent success rate of coming back at least as good, if not better than before,” Epstein said early in his Cubs career, citing the thinking behind several buy-low acquisitions of pitchers coming off the surgery. One of those was a 24-year-old right-hander from the Indians’ system who had spent two years rehabbing from the surgery and setbacks before the Cubs selected him in the Rule 5 draft.
2015: Once a highly touted starting pitching prospect, Rondon has grown in three years with the Cubs into a 97 mph closer with a career-high 30 saves this year (plus two in the playoffs). If he stays healthy and productive, he could join Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino and Jose Bautista among the best Rule 5 picks in the last 20 years.