Five things will decide .500 things
LaRoche residue, Danks/Latos, Avisail, pen, cash will determine if the Sox are better than middling
SAN DIEGO — A productive offseason engendered an explosive (in more ways than one, pardon the interruption), homer-charged spring training.
When the debris was cleared from the Adam LaRoche-and-son train wreck midway through, the White Sox picked up where they left off, continuing to leave Arizona yards with old bats and new. They even played relatively clean defense and kept bad baserunning decisions to a minimum, two more encouraging developments with the real 162 games beginning Monday.
After finishing 10 games below .500 in 2015, the Sox look capable of getting to .500, maybe a bit better. But significantly better? Here are five things that will affect just how high — or low — they finish around the so-so mark.
LaFallout
Camp was “rolling full steam ahead,” as ace Chris Sale put it, when the Drake LaRoche mess turned things upside down for several days. Since then, the Sox have gathered themselves, are enjoying a loose clubhouse and appear to be focusing on baseball. If they start poorly, LaRoche’s retirement and the circumstances causing the en- suing blowup will get dragged back under the spotlight. And a difficult April schedule awaits them, starting with Sonny Gray and the Oakland Athletics on the road. After going home for three days against the American League Central rival Cleveland Indians, it’s back on the road for the Central’s Minnesota Twins to start a weeklong trip. A month with only 10 home games concludes with a tough road trip to Toronto and Baltimore.
Back end of the rotation
The lefty trio of Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon is arguably a top-10 top three in baseball. After that, who knows? Left-hander John Danks, in the last year of his $65 million contract, is a 4.75 ERA pitcher since shoulder surgery. And right-hander Mat Latos, trying to rejuvenate his once-shining career after injuries sidetracked him in 2014 and 2015, is a wild card with minimal depth to back him up. Keep an eye on No. 8 overall pick Carson Fulmer, who will start the season at Class AA Birmingham but could be pressed into service in Chicago if he continues to impress.
Avisail Garcia
A score of skeptics scorched management for not quitting on the 24-year-old right fielder after Garcia’s 2015 offensive and defensive metrics lumped him among baseball’s worst starting outfielders. The 6-4, 240-pounder looks the same defensively, but LaRoche’s exit and Austin Jackson’s addition to the outfield allow for better-suited time for Garcia at designated hitter. Citing an altered stance that helps him see the ball better, Garcia slashed .333/.390/.667 with four homers and a team-high 17 RBI over 59 plate appearances this spring. That Arizona sample size is small but encouraging, and the real test comes when the real games begin this week.
The bullpen
If the additions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie and fewer at-bats from LaRoche spike their lowly home-run numbers — they were last in the AL in long balls in 2015 but led all of baseball this spring with 49 — the Sox will be a much-improved offensive club. That should mean more chances for the bullpen to protect leads rather than working to keep games close. On paper, the same returning seven-man pen was much better ERA-wise, from 4.38 in 2014 to 3.61 in 2015. But bullpens, erratic by nature, often fluctuate from year to year. The Sox’ pen must stay on the good side, and having a full year of Nate Jones — who was dominant this spring — is big.
About that $13 million
Left on the table by LaRoche, who as a 12-homer, 44-RBI guy did the team a favor by retiring, the Sox have extra cash to sign a pitcher or swing a trade for a needed piece. They might go with what they have out of camp, assess their needs as the first couple of months unfold and go from there. If they’re in contention midseason, look for chairman Jerry Reinsdorf to go beyond that saved $13 million.