HISTORY SAYS CUBS CAN’T KEEP UP PACE
Loaded team’s run differential is off the charts
At some point this week, every major league team will hit the 10% mark of its season, which means one thing: It’s still very, very early.
There’s plenty of absurd player paces out there — such as Trevor Story’s 95home run clip — and enough slow starts that surely will turn around, such as Miguel Sano’s zero- home run performance.
Yet one set of numbers jump off the page that might seem like a bellwether, if only because it confirms much of our bias entering the season: run differentials.
Certainly, many of the dominant and dominated clubs will veer toward the middle as the season kicks more earnestly into gear. At the same time, many of the extreme patterns we see surely will hold up.
So who should panic and who should feel rightly smug about their offseason moves based on their balance ledger entering Monday’s games? Let’s try to explore.
CHICAGO CUBS: + 40
Is it really happening? Probably! Oh, the Cubs won’t continue this breakneck pace of winning nine of every 12 games. Right? They’re on pace to outscore opponents by 540 runs, which would shatter the 1939 New York Yankees’ mark of 411 runs.
The Toronto Blue Jays were the 2015 run differential champs, at 221 runs, and that mark seems within these Cubs’ reach, thanks to their pitching. As a group, the Cubs rotation is averaging 6.63 innings a start, a remarkable number for early April, when arms are waking up and stretching out. No. 4 starter Kyle Hendricks has churned out two quality starts ( at least six innings with three or fewer runs allowed), striking out 10 and walking one.
Among their vaunted hitters, only Dexter Fowler (. 375 average, .650 slugging percentage) appears to be outperforming his norm. Anthony Rizzo (. 186) has not begun to hit.
Verdict: The real deal
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS: + 35
Cardinals fans freaking out after a season- opening sweep at the Pittsburgh Pirates had the chance to calm down as the club won seven of its next nine. Oh, what’s this? The Cubs are in town. So much for
rational assessments.
Still, there are positive early signs that the Cardinal Machine is humming.
They’ve again plucked reinforcements from their system to plug holes, as 25year- old shortstop Aledmys Diaz has competently replaced injured Jhonny Peralta. Jeremy Hazelbaker, signed as a castoff from the Los Angeles Dodgers system last summer, has been among the best stories of this early season.
Their respective 1.254 and 1.239 onbase- plus- slugging percentages ( OPS) won’t hold up. The early stars to keep an eye on are starters Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia.
This might be the year Adam Wainwright — searching for answers after three starts produced an 8.27 ERA — hands the nebulous ace title to Wacha. Let’s also assume free agent signee Mike Leake eventually settles into the reliable midrotation groove that more closely mirrors his career 3.91 ERA. That leaves Wacha, Martinez and Garcia as the club’s make- or- break trio, and they have pitched to a 2.84 ERA and the Cards have won six of their seven starts.
Verdict: They’re still the Cardinals
MILWAUKEE BREWERS: - 29
Really, the Braves (- 25), Phillies (- 18) or Cincinnati Reds (- 14) — all engaged in rebuilding projects — would have sufficed here.
But Milwaukee is below water the most and has performed as we figured — a revamped and promising lineup but an overmatched staff.
The Brewers have given up a major league- high 68 runs — a remarkable feat for an NL team. Wily Peralta ( 10.13 ERA) and Taylor Jungmann ( 9.00) have been bad. Even Jimmy Nelson’s 2- 1, 2.79 ERA start has all kinds of red flags — most notably a 5.85 Fielding Independent Pitching mark ( 3.00 is considered average) and a 13- 9 strikeout- walk ratio.
Verdict: They are who we thought they were