FOUR ‘BOOM OR BUST’ PROSPECTS TO WATCH
Which NFL teams will take chances on these players?
jbell@usatoday.com USA TODAY Sports
They say it’s a deep draft, loaded with defensive playmakers and big uglies for the trenches.
It is headlined by franchise quarterbacks, and judging by the futures mortgaged by the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles to move into the top two slots, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz had better be the next coming of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
Or at least can’t-miss prospects worthy of their own rivalry.
For all of the hype, anticipation, heard-that-before analysis and red-carpet pageantry of the three-day event commencing
Thursday night in Chicago, it begs for perspective.
The NFL draft is not an exact science. Remember, it’s a crap shoot layered in projection and human miscalculation, which is why Brady can be picked No. 199 overall on Bill Belichick’s birthday and JaMarcus Russell can be claimed by Al Davis at No. 1 overall.
Yet as the increasing popularity of the NFL’s signature offseason event confirms, the draft is so tantalizing for fans and the league because it offers hope on top of a built-in marketing apparatus that introduces consumers to another wave of reality-TV characters.
But for all of the Laremy Tunsils, Ezekiel Elliotts and Jalen Ramseys — bona fide studs pegged to provide instant im- pact — it’s just as intriguing to see what happens to some who have been labeled “boom or bust.”
DT Robert Nkemdiche, Mississippi:
The book says first-round talent … with potential for first-alarm drama. He’s the guy who missed his final game after falling out of a hotel room window. Charged with marijuana possession, Nkemdiche insists alcohol was his issue. Nonetheless, it’s a red flag that probably has prompted some teams to remove him from their draft boards, while others likely downgraded him, which makes him a potential “value” pick. Last year, the Denver Broncos traded up to draft edge rusher Shane Ray (23rd overall), whose stock slid after a marijuana citation. So far, it’s worked out. But each case is different. The Dallas Cowboys took top-10 talent Randy Gregory in the second round last year after he failed a combine drug test. Now Gregory will start his second season by serving a fourgame suspension, stemming from failed drug tests.
QB Connor Cook, Michigan State:
No quarterback in the draft was as productive as Cook, who won 34 games and two Big Ten titles, yet he is dogged for his leadership skills. He’s undoubtedly been asked repeatedly by teams why he wasn’t voted as one of the Spartans’ three captains — a seniors-only honor on a team with 22 seniors — as they try to project his NFL locker room fit. Snatching the MVP trophy from legendary Archie Griffin after the Big Ten title game wasn’t a good look, either. But the character issue might be overblown. Where are the arrests for DUI or assault? There are none. His résumé is built on thriving in a pro-style offense against top-flight competition. (OK, the Alabama game excluded.) If he turns out to be better than Goff or Wentz — or both — some decision-makers will have some explaining to do.
RB Derrick Henry, Alabama:
Winning the Heisman Trophy as the engine for a national championship team isn’t enough to secure a first-round slot? Probably not. Running backs can be so devalued in the pass-oriented NFL. Henry (2,219 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns in 2015) is not even the toprated back in the draft. That status belongs to Elliott. Recent history, though, shows that “second” back off the board is special enough. Two years ago, Jeremy Hill was drafted after Bishop Sankey. In 2013, Le’Veon Bell was the second back picked after Giovani Bernard. In 2012, Doug Martin proved to be a much better pick than Trent Richardson. Of course, last year Todd Gurley, the first back drafted, was rookie of the year. The point: Regardless of his draft slot, Henry looks like a home run hitter.
QB Cardale Jones, Ohio State:
Jones won a national championship and never lost a game (11-0) as a starter but wound up on the Buckeyes bench. It cut both ways, reflecting Ohio State’s talent and Jones’ inability to grow on the job. But he has enormous raw talent, which is why he looms as maybe the big story on the third day of the draft. After that, check back in three years. Jones is the ultimate project. Here’s to him landing with a patient team with a settled quarterback situation and an accomplished QB guru who can bring Jones along the old-fashioned way behind a veteran. Then maybe he’ll tap his potential.
Yes, it’s a deep draft, with no shortage of plots.