Some stocks bloom in the fall
Here’s something new for investors to fret over: the fall. The season isn’t typically the friendliest for stocks. Yet investors can still enjoy big gains in this potentially perilous time of the year.
Ten stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, including lighting company Acuity Brands ( AYI), food processor Tyson Foods ( TSN) and drugmaker Mylan ( MYL), have excelled during the fall the past five years, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from S& P Global Market Intelligence. Each of these stocks have topped the S& P 500 each of the past falls and delivered average gains during the season of 13% or more.
Investors fear fall, in part because it’s known as being the season with the most serious risk. Many of the biggest stock market crashes, including the initial selloff of the financial crisis of 2008, happened in the fall. Stocks’ average decline from their highs during the season to the lows is 9.1%, making it the worst seasonal downward adjustment of all four seasons, says The Stock Trader’s
Almanac.
Recently, though, things have turned. The S& P 500 has gained each of the past three falls, including a 5.2% rise in the fall of 2015. And even the drop in the fall of 2012 wasn’t all that bad, giving up just 2.1%.
There’s still money to be made in the fall. The biggest winner in the month in the past five years has been lighting company Acuity Brands. As the days get shorter, demand for the company’s stock apparently lights up. Shares of the company have gained an average of 20.6% over the past five falls, including most recently a 31.5% gain last fall. The company is profiting as commercial buildings are upgraded tomore- efficient LED lighting, says Ryan Merkel, an analyst at William Blair.
Shares of Tyson Foods— the maker of meat products including Ball Park franks and Aidells sausages— has gained 18% over the past five falls.
Last year’s 27% gain was especially noteworthy. Investors initially panicked over a World Health Organization report issued early in the fall of 2015 about the safety of processed foods. But as the season wore on, memories faded fast. Analysts think the stock will be worth more than 4% more than the current price of $ 75 a share in 18 months.
Mylan might hope for a fall miracle. Shares of the drugmaker are down 20% this year to $ 43.03 a share, most recently over ire about the company’s price hikes of its Epi Pen. But the stock has gained 17% in each of the past five fall seasons and could be set up to do it again. Analysts think there’s 35% upside on the stock.