Why a bull market is bearish for Trump

Donald Trump says bad things will happen when the Federal Reservefueled bubble pops.

“We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble,” the Republican presidential nominee declared at Monday night’s first debate.

And if you take a proprietary poll by a Wall Street research firm at face value, Trump’s chances to defeat Democratic rival Hillary Clinton and become president might increase if economic data and the stock market flash signs of weakness prior to Election Day.

Bespoke Investment Group surveys consumers monthly on their views about the economy and markets and, more recently, the intersection of politics and money.

What Bespoke found was interesting. Of consumers polled that have a “positive view” of the stock market, six of 10, or 61%, said they plan to vote for Clinton, vs. just 39% for Trump. Similarly, of consumers that are positive on the economy, 78% said they plan on voting for Clinton, vs. 22% who cite Trump.

Bespoke concluded: “The best thing for Trump’s poll numbers would probably be a stock market decline ... between now and Election Day.”