Bears stats show run game, special teams lagging

The old line that statistics lie has never been truer than it is in the NFL today.

For example, if I told you that a team was seventh in total offense, fourth in passing, fifth in lowest percentage of interceptions and 12th in lowest percentage of sacks allowed, where might you expect that team to rank in scoring and what do you think its record might be?

Now let’s say that same team is 11th in total defense, 10th against the pass, 11th in third down efficiency, eighth in yard differential versus its opponents and third in goal- to- go percentage. That’s probably a pretty good defense right?

So where does this team rank in scoring and points allowed, and how close are they playing other teams?

Actually, these guys are just 31st in points scored, 19th in points allowed, 28th in point differential per game and they are the 1- 5 Chicago Bears.

The only team worse than the Bears in all three of those categories is the 1- 5 New York Jets, and the only other clubs worse than the Bears in both points allowed and point differential are the 2- 3 Bucs, 1- 5 49ers and 0- 6 Browns. I guess those stats don’t lie. Why are the Bears struggling so badly to score points in spite of repeatedly piling up yards and moving the ball up and down the field?

Usually, the first place you’d look is at turnovers, but while the Bears aren’t great taking care of the football, they’re not awful either.

On offense, their seven turnovers rank them tied for 13th fewest in the league and their six takeaways are tied for 16th.

At minus- 1, the Bears are tied for 19th in the NFL in turnover/ takeaway ratio, certainly not great, but nine of the 11 teams behind them have better records than they do, and five are .500 or better.

The Bears’ biggest problems right now, beyond not scoring enough points, are being tied for 28th in third down efficiency, tied for 27th in percentage of field goals made, 26th in time of possession, 25th in red zone efficiency and 23rd running the football.

It is interesting to note that only three of the top 10 teams in the league in red zone efficiency are not in the top 10 rushing the football, and only four of the top 10 in scoring aren’t in the top 10 in rushing.

On defense, six of the top 10 in fewest points allowed are also in the top 10 in time of possession and two more, New England and Kansas City, are 12th and 13th in TOP, respectively.

There is one other area that jumped out of a statistical analysis of the Bears that I had not really focused on and that is that Connor Barth is not the only problem with the Bears special teams.

They are OK returning kicks, 11th returning punts and 18th in kickoff returns, but the Bears are just 24th covering kickoffs and they’re actually dead- last in opponents’ punt return average.

There are all kinds of ways to manipulate statistics and it can be dangerous to form too many conclusions from them, but they certainly do crystalize some problems with a team’s performance and can create a path to improvement.

This was always going to be a rebuilding season for the Bears, and nobody expected 6- 0, but nobody saw 1- 5 coming either.

Even with the injuries the Bears have suffered, it seems clear that with a better running game and improvement on special teams – pretty attainable goals one would assume with the healthy bodies that are currently available – the Bears can be better than they’ve been so far.

The question is, what are the Bears coaches and players going to do about it?