ROSIER OUTLOOK
It’s more likely Penn State- Wisconsin winner heads to Pasadena than competes for national title
The Big Ten Championship Game is two- for- two at sending victors to the College Football Playoff. It’s about to be two- for- three. Maybe.
The double- barreled beauty of No. 7 Penn State (+ 2 ½ ) vs. No. 6 Wisconsin ( Saturday, 7 p. m., Fox- 32) is that it’s awfully tough to pick a winner of this seemingly even matchup of 10- 2 teams, and we just plain don’t know the stakes.
With help from a team or two ranked higher by the playoff committee, the reward could be the fourth seed in the playoff. ( Some reward that would be, by the way — a likely date with top- ranked Alabama in Atlanta.) Yet even if the winner between the Badgers and Nittany Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is rewarded with a measly old trip to the Rose Bowl, gosh, isn’t that wonderful enough?
It ought to be. If the time ever comes when it isn’t, I don’t want to know about it.
Besides — and I’ll try to be delicate here — the Badgers and Nittany Lions are really good, but not national- title- contender good. It has been true all along that the best two teams in the Big Ten are Ohio State and Michigan. It’s still true now. Not that there’s any shame for the winners of the league’s East and West divisions.
“I think all good teams across the country overachieve,” PSU coach James Franklin said. “That’s what you’re trying to do. You’re trying to maximize the opportunities you get, trying to maximize the talent you have. You do that with great chemistry, relationships, trust and love for one another.
“Good teams all over the country, that’s what you’re striving for. You’re striving to be greater than the sum of your parts.”
Bingo. That’s a perfect explanation of what both of these teams have done. The Lions, winners of eight straight, have slightly better talent at the offensive skill positions. The Badgers, winners of six straight, are a little bit better up front on both sides of the ball. Touchdowns? There’ll be a few. Bucky wins, 35- 31. No. 10 Oklahoma State (+ 11 ½ ) at No. 9 Oklahoma ( Saturday, 11: 30 a. m., Fox- 32) isn’t a conference championship game, per se, but it is for the Big 12 title. And it dang sure is Bedlam, one of the great rivalries of the sport. What separates these 9- 2 teams that are a combined 16- 0 since the start of October?
“They’ve got several ( offensive) skill players that are very, very good and are going to be playing in the NFL,” Cowboys coach Mike Gundy said of OU.
Can’t argue with that. Boomer Sooner, 45- 31.
And now, chronologically, predictions for the other seven conference championship games around the FBS ( all Saturday unless otherwise noted):
MAC: Ohio (+ 18 ½ ) vs. No. 17 Western Michigan ( Friday, 6 p. m., ESPN2). Might this be coach P. J. Fleck’s final game with the 12- 0 Broncos? Meanwhile, don’t overlook the underdog Bobcats, who have the league’s staunchest run defense and wickedest pass rush ( 40 sacks). Fightin’ Flecks by a touchdown at Detroit’s Ford Field.
Pac- 12: No. 8 Colorado (+ 7 ½ ) vs. No. 4 Washington ( Friday, 8: 30 p. m., Fox- 32). You have to love the grit displayed all season by an excellent Buffaloes team whose only losses were at Michigan and at USC. Mike McIntyre gets my vote for national coach of the year. But huge games like this one at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., are what Washington coach Chris Petersen is known for. These Huskies are like his best Boise State teams, only faster everywhere and more athletic. UDub, 37- 24. AAC: Temple (+ 3) at No. 19
Navy ( 11 a. m., Ch. 7). What a
fascinating clash of styles, with Navy’s triple- option machine going against by far the league’s toughest defense. Middies have their hands full all day, but they eke out victory No. 10.
C- USA: Louisiana Tech (+ 9 ½ ) at Western Kentucky ( 11 a. m., ESPN).
The first game between these teams was a real snoozer. It was back in October, when WKU was upset 55- 52. Hilltoppers get their revenge by a comfortable margin.
SEC: No. 1 Alabama (- 24) vs.
Florida ( 3 p. m., Ch. 2). The threeloss Gators have been beaten by 10 at Tennessee ( where Alabama won by 39), by 21 at Arkansas ( where Alabama won by 19) and by 18 at Florida State ( where Alabama didn’t play, but come on — we know what would’ve happened). Shouldn’t be all that much drama at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
“If we don’t win this game, maybe we throw a stink bomb out there, maybe we don’t get in the playoffs,” Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban said. Funny guy. Roll Tide, 31- 14. MWC: San Diego State (- 6 ½ ) at Wyoming ( 6: 45 p. m., ESPN). Doesn’t anybody care that the Aztecs traveled to Laramie, Wyo., just two weeks ago and lost 34- 33? We’ll take another exciting game like that any old time. Cowboys pull off another upset at home.
ACC: No. 3 Clemson (- 10) vs. No. 23 Virginia Tech ( 7 p. m., Ch. 7). The Hokies have enough going for them in the passing game, led by terrific quarterback Jerod Evans, to put touchdowns on the board against Clemson. But can Justin Fuente’s upstart team do much of anything to stop the Tigers’ offense? It’s too tall an order. Orlando’s Camping World Stadium belongs to Dabo Swinney, Deshaun Watson and company, who win 41- 24 to lock down a spot in the playoff. Last week: 7- 4 straight- up, 6- 41 vs. the spread Season to date: 62- 35 straightup; 52- 41- 4 vs. the spread. Follow me on Twitter @ SLGreenberg.