AIRLINES EXPECT HOLIDAY RUSH TO BOOST RECORD ’ 16
U. S. airlines expect a 3.5% boost in December holiday travelers, capping a year when the number of total passengers is projected to surpass 800 million for the first time.
“We are on track to eclipse last year’s alltime high,” John Heimlich, chief economist for the trade group Airlines for America, which represents most of the largest carriers, told USA TODAY. “This holiday push will be the final frontier.”
Airlines are expecting 45.2 million passengers from Dec. 16 through Jan. 5, according to the group. With an average 73,000 more passengers each day during the holiday period, airlines have added 99,000 seats daily through more planes and larger aircraft to accommodate the rush.
“Planes will be a little less full,” Heimlich said.
The number of passengers has been about 3% higher than in 2015 each month through August, according to the most recent figures available from the Transportation Department’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
If that growth rate holds through December as projected, the number of passengers will eclipse the record set in 2015.
Last year was the first time since the Great Recession that airlines carried more passengers than in 2007. The total in 2007 was 770 million and in 2015 it was 798 million, after growing each year since 2009, the department said.
A gradually but steadily improving economy, competitive fares and smooth operations combined to bring travelers back to airlines in record numbers, Heimlich said.
Fares averaged $ 353 in the first six months of the year, according to the department.
In inflation- adjusted dollars spanning the last 20 years, that figure is down from the peak of $ 478 in 1999 and nearly matched the low of $ 337 amid the recession in 2009.
Flights were relatively reliable. During the 12day Thanksgiving travel period, airlines completed 99.4% of their flights and 84.5% of the flights arrived within 15 minutes of their schedules, according to preliminary figures from masFlight, which provides aviation software and data services.
For November compared to the previous year, the completion factor was up nearly a point to 98.8% and the on- time arrival rate was up nearly three points to 86.6%, according to masFlight.
“That was a great month,” Heimlich said.
The department’s official figures for reliability will be available in a few months.
The Transportation Security Administration reduced checkpoint waits during the summer and fall — after long lines in the spring — by hiring more workers and improving screening technology. Airlines have begun installing dozens of automated conveyors to screen carry- on bags at the largest airports, which speed travelers through checkpoints about 30% faster, according to the TSA.
The number of December holiday travelers will range from 1.8 million to 2.4 million per day, according to the airlines. While difficult to gauge precisely, Dec. 22 and Dec. 23 are expected to be the busiest days, with Dec. 24 and Dec. 25 the slowest, Heimlich said.
Airlines have added 99,000 seats daily through more planes and larger aircraft to handle the holiday rush.