Mussina’s résumé speaks loudly, but is it enough?
Mike Mussina was one of the most consistent and durable pitchers of his generation, winning at least 15 games and surpassing the 200- inning mark 11 times each while pitching most of his 18year career in the midst of the steroid era.
The cerebral right- hander finished with a 270- 153 record, notching more victories than 34 starters already in the Hall of Fame. His .638 winning percentage is surpassed by only five other pitchers among 250- game winners in the modern era: Lefty Grove, Christy Mathewson, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Grover Cleveland Alexander. Steroid- tainted Clemens is the only one in that group not in the Hall.
Playing his whole career in the powerful American League East — the first 10 seasons with the Baltimore Orioles, the other eight with the New York Yankees — bolsters and weakens Mussina’s case for enshrinement.
He regularly faced some of the game’s most fearsome lineups while often pitching in hitter- friendly parks, but partly as a result of that he wound up with a career ERA of 3.68 that’s less than Hall- worthy. The case for: Whether pitching for losing teams, as he did in half his seasons in Baltimore, or toiling for contenders, Mussina found ways to succeed. He registered double digits in wins in every year except for his abbreviated rookie season and posted a 147- 81 mark with the Orioles before moving on to the Yankees as a free agent.
Mussina combined guile and pinpoint command with prime stuff, ranking in the league’s top five in ERA seven times and finishing among the six leading vote- getters in Cy Young Award balloting nine times. His career strikeout- towalk ratio of 3.58- 1 ranks second best among pitchers with at least 3,000 innings.
A five- time All- Star, Mussina was also an outstanding fielder, collecting seven Gold Gloves, and logged a 3.42 ERA in 23 postseason appearances. He made it to
the World Series twice with the Yankees, though they lost both times ( 2001 and ’ 03).
His career wins above replacement ( WAR) figure of 82.7 is the 24th best ever among pitchers.
The case against: Besides the so- so ERA, Mussina’s case is hurt by his lack of signature achievements: no Cy Young Awards, no ERA titles, no strikeout crowns.
And the one time he finally won 20 games, he retired the next season.
It should be pointed out Mussina played at a time when surefire Hall of Famers such as Pedro Martinez and Johnson were plying their trade, in addition to Clemens, who won four of his seven Cy Youngs while he and Mussina were in the same league.
Mussina’s body of work stands the test of time, particularly in light of the inflated offensive numbers of his era, but it doesn’t scream Hall of Famer.
Lookalikes: Baseball- Reference’s Similarity Scores index sends mixed signals regarding Mussina, linking him with Hall of Famers such as Juan Marichal, Jim Palmer and Carl Hubbell but also with more questionable candidates David Wells, Tim Hudson and CC Sabathia. No. 1 on the list is Andy Pettitte, likely to be regarded as a borderline candidate.
Bill James’ Hall Monitor is more generous, giving Mussina a 121 score that puts him 21 points above likely election.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system assigns Mussina 63.8 points, or 1.7 more than the Hall average. It’s also a higher figure than that of 38 starters in the Hall.
X factors: Mussina put up five seasons of at least 18 victories until finally reaching the magical 20- win threshold by going 20- 9 with a 3.37 ERA in 2008, his final year in the majors.
At 39, he became the oldest pitcher to log a 20- win season and only the second one — after Sandy Koufax — to intentionally retire after achieving that milestone.
Concluding his career with such a flourish and opting not to linger in pursuit of 300 wins might win Mussina some converts.
Consensus: After languishing in the 20% range while fellow pitchers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Johnson, Martinez and John Smoltz were elected to the Hall, Mussina made a strong move up in garnering 43% of the votes in his third year of eligibility.
There’s a decent chance those numbers will continue to rise — Clemens and controversial Curt Schilling are his top rivals among starters — and possibly eventually get up to the critical 75% mark toward the end of Mussina’s 10year candidacy.