Life on bubble fraught with worry
Illinois State, Syracuse each can make case for tournament berth
Illinois State coach Dan Muller said he and his players are ‘‘ cautiously optimistic’’ about hearing the team’s name called by Greg Gumbel on Selection Sunday.
‘‘ It’s out of our control,’’ Muller said of the Redbirds’ anxietyridden weeklong wait.
Illinois State lost in the final of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament last Sunday and has had to sit on the sidelines and wait this week as other bubble teams try to make their cases. Bid thieves might spell doom. Of the 14 remaining bubble teams heading into the weekend, more than half are still in action.
‘‘ We know which teams we have to root for and against,’’ Muller said. ‘‘ Our players are obviously very anxious. We just try to get ready to play either way.’’
To help his team prepare for jubilation or heartbreak, Muller has turned to the coach of 2016’ s biggest snub, Monmouth’s King Rice. The message: Stay steady and together as a team and keep hope.
The Redbirds ( 27- 6) are as ‘‘ bubblicious’’ as it gets, sporting a strong RPI of 32. Only six teams with an RPI that impressive have been excluded from the NCAA tournament. Since 1990- 91, 96 percent of teams with an RPI of 1 to 40 have made the tournament field.
Yet recent history says the tournament selection committee likes top- 100 victories, as evidenced by the inclusion last season of Tulsa and Syracuse. The Orange went all the way to the Final Four despite having an RPI of 72, the worst for an at- large bubble team in the history of the tournament.
Illinois State has only one victory against a team with a top- 50 RPI, and it was against Wichita State, a team that pummeled them by 20 points in the MVC tournament final and beat them by 41 points in a regular- season rematch. The Redbirds tied the Shockers for the MVC regular- season title, but the difference in profiles is Illinois State’s two sub- 100 losses and a nonconference strength of schedule of 150.
Compare the Redbirds’ résumé to Syracuse’s. The Orange ( 18- 14) have an RPI of 86 and a nonconference strength of schedule of 194. They also won only two games away from home, compared with 12 for Illinois State.
But Syracuse just might have the eye candy the committee wants with six top- 50 victories, including Duke, Florida State and Virginia. And even though conference records aren’t part of the criteria the committee considers, finishing two games above .500 in the Atlantic Coast Conference is an argument in the Orange’s favor.
‘‘ Our profile is better this year than it was last year,’’ Orange coach Jim Boeheim said.
That’s debatable. Syracuse has lost five games against sub- 100 teams, including a 33- point defeat to lowly St. John’s.
In Syracuse, you have a middling power- conference team with a Hall of Fame coach that had an opportunity to enhance its profile just about every night. In Illinois State, you have a mid- major with an up- and- coming coach that got no help from its MVC foes because no team in the conference ranked inside the RPI top 100 outside of the Redbirds and Wichita State.
Then factor in nonconference scheduling, something the committee really tries to use a magnifying glass for, especially with midmajors. The Orange lost all of their toughest nonconference games, falling to Wisconsin and South Carolina by double digits. Illinois State doesn’t normally schedule lightly, but opponents underperformed this season.
‘‘ Last year, we played Kentucky and Maryland and had the seventh-toughest nonconference schedule in the country,’’ Muller said. ‘‘ This year . . . I really hope the committee doesn’t say we didn’t try [ to schedule]. Some of the bigger- conference teams have it much easier than us.’’