Five teams wish for better luck
Chargers, Bears, Vikings bore brunt of injuries
Parsing luck from skill can be a difficult task when assessing an NFL team’s season, but there’s little question some stand to benefit from good fortune while others are set off course by a handful of bad breaks.
In honor of St. Patrick’s Day, we took a look at five teams that could enjoy a significant swing if they don’t fall prey to random chance again next season. But what constitutes luck in the NFL?
Three factors stood out as possible contributors to a team’s fortune. Injuries are to be expected, but a year of widespread losses can often be an outlier. Bad records in one- score games also can be an indicator of luck or at least a possible regression to the mean. And while some groups are more turnover- prone based on their tendencies, teams lagging behind the rest of the league can get a boost from random chance involved with some giveaways or takeaways.
These teams can’t depend on those factors alone for improvement, but merely breaking even could contribute to a more fruitful season.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Perhaps the season opener served as a harbinger in what would become their final season in San Diego. In a 33- 27 overtime loss to the Chiefs in which they gave up a 21- point lead, the Chargers also watched as wide receiver Keenan Allen suffered a sea-
son- ending torn anterior cruciate ligament. Close losses and injuries came to be two of the themes of the 5- 11 season.
The Chargers finished with a leaguehigh 21 players on injured reserve, including Allen, cornerback Jason Verrett, linebacker Manti Te’o and running back Danny Woodhead. The team’s first seven losses ( and nine total) were all by eight points or fewer, though it also won four of its games by the same margin.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Owner Shad Khan wasn’t keen to his team’s shortcomings on bad luck. He fired coach Gus Bradley late in a 3- 13 campaign that fell well short of expectations after a free agency spending spree. But the promotion of Doug Marrone to head coach and the return of Tom Coughlin, this time in the front office, suggest Jacksonville brass doesn’t believe it’s far from a breakthrough.
Quarterback Blake Bortles has 51 interceptions in three years. Last year featured some bizarre bounces, including back- to- back weeks in which he was picked off after the ball deflected off his intended target’s foot. With an emerging defense, Marrone might look to put Bortles in more low- risk situations that would help Jacksonville improve on the NFL’s third- worst - 16 turnover differential. The Jags also went 2- 8 in games decided by eight points or fewer.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson took the NFL by surprise early in their debut season. The rookie quarterback and coach helped key a 4- 2 start. But the offense stalled at midseason, a struggle that coincided with a 10- game ban for right tackle Lane Johnson.
Wentz must find a way over the rookie wall ( 16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, nine fumbles) he hit. Boding well for Philadelphia: The team finished with a + 36 point differential ( second best of all losing teams) despite an imposing schedule, and it went 1- 6 in games decided by eight points or fewer.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
A devastating non- contact knee injury to Teddy Bridgewater was enough to blow up the Vikings’ plans one week before the season, and the hits kept coming. Running back Adrian Peterson was sidelined for most of the season, while offensive tackles Matt Kalil, Andre Smith and Jake Long were all lost for the year. Even Mike Zimmer wasn’t safe. The Vikings coach missed a game in December after having emergency surgery to repair a detached retina.
Latavius Murray might not be able to single- handedly lift a running game that ranked last with a historically woeful 3.2 yards per carry. But having a fully healthy offensive line, with Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers stepping in for Kalil and Smith, could have a ripple effect on the rest of the offense.
CHICAGO BEARS
GM Ryan Pace likely didn’t envision Matt Barkley as a starter in 2016 when he signed the heretofore journeyman to the practice squad in September. By November, however, Barkley had to take over the reins to an already depleted team ( 19 players finished the year on injured reserve) with Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer sidelined.
But a healthier group should help the team close out the games it couldn’t in 2016, as it went 1- 6 in games decided by eight points or fewer. More help could also come from turnover improvements. Though the - 20 differential was inflated by Barkley’s late- season interception spree, the Bears had some of the worst luck on fumbles with just three defensive recoveries and 12 lost on offense.