Super starts by Astros, Harper not aberrations
The one- quarter mark of the baseball season, by now reached by a majority of clubs, serves as the first true barometer of team and individual performance.
But we don’t really expect Edwin Encarnacion to hit .203 ( his average entering Friday) any more than we think Xander Bogaerts will go the whole season without a home run.
To separate reality from mirage, we present our Five Stats We Believe In.
THE ASTROS’ .707 WINNING PERCENTAGE
Not to say Houston will continue winning seven out of every 10 games, but it wasn’t far- fetched before the season to envision the Astros as a powerhouse.
The Astros have assembled an enviable core of 27- and- under everyday players with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer and Alex Bregman, but what has really spearheaded their majors- best record is the return to form — and health — of starters Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers.
They have gone a combined 11- 1 with a 2.21 ERA to set the pace for a rotation that leads the majors in wins ( 20) and ranks third in ERA ( 3.49).
And as opposed to two years ago, when the offense relied heavily on the home run, the club has a balanced attack that’s better suited to withstand slumps.
BRYCE HARPER’S 1.202 OPS
That $ 21.65 million contract the Washington Nationals granted their superstar for next season is a hedge on Harper having another monster year like in 2015 and costing them more than $ 25 million in his final arbitration year before free agency.
The investment looks awfully smart, with Harper putting to shame some of the numbers that won him NL MVP honors two years ago, let alone those of his subpar 2016. Harper’s eye- opening on- basepluss-lugging percentage ( OPS) comes accompanied by a .479 on- base percentage.
The shoulder injury Harper might have endured last season — he never confirmed it— seems to be a thing of the past. He’s also surrounded by a stronger lineup, thanks to the revival of Ryan Zimmerman, although the loss of A. J. Pollock for the season stings.
Besides reducing his strikeouts to a careerlow 16.6%, Harper is going to the opposite field more frequently than at any point since his rookie season, better than 30% of the time. That’s a powerful combination capable of keeping his OPS in the stratosphere.
FOUR UNDER .500
The NL East loomed as a two- team race between the Nationals and the New York Mets, with the other three teams scrambling to win more than they lost.
Now it looks like a runaway for Washington, with no serious competition.
The Mets are broken down, with key pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia out for months. The Atlanta Braves are putting the pieces back together after a teardown. The Philadelphia Phillies have the majors’ second- worst ERA ( 4.92), one spot ahead of the Mets. And the Miami Marlins, still reeling from the Jose Fernandez tragedy, rank in the bottom five in runs scored and ERA.
The Nationals might as well start printing those playoff tickets now.
MIGUEL SANO’S 101.8 MPH AVERAGE EXIT VELOCITY
Admittedly this is bit of an esoteric number, based on Statcast data. Reaching triple digits in batted balls is pretty significant. Only four players are at the level — Aaron Judge, Khris Davis and Joey Gallo are the others — and Sano tops them all.
The 6- 4, 260- plus- pound Minnesota Twins slugger has achieved an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher in 65% of the balls he has hit.
Always a pretty selective hitter for a young slugger, Sano has been chasing outside the strike zone less and walking more than in his first two seasons, reasons to believe he can continue to clobber balls on a regular basis.
ALEX GORDON’S .489 OPS
The three- time All- Star has been at the heart of the Kansas City Royals’ offensive woes this season, one of the main culprits in the club ranking last in the majors in runs scored.
Gordon’s dismal 2016 season — a .220 batting average and .692 OPS— has been followed by an even worse first six weeks this year. His .168 batting average and sickly OPS lend credence to the notion his career descent has begun even though he’s 33. Gordon missed more than a month with a broken hand in 2016, but seems to be healthy this season. Most troubling is that in both years he has struggled to hit fastballs after mashing them during his heyday.