Dems’ path to House majority in 2018 runs through N. Y., N. J.
Flipping blue- state seats key to midterm victory
WASHINGTON – If there’s going to be a Democratic wave in the 2018 midterm elections, look for it to wash ashore in New York and New Jersey.
House Democrats have targeted all but one Republican — Rep. Chris Smith in New Jersey’s reliably conservative fourth district — in the two states, where former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential race. They need a strong showing there and in other states, such as California, to win back the House majority — a prospect that, while difficult, increasingly looks possible.
“There is no path to the majority for Democrats without making inroads in the New York and New Jersey suburbs,” said Jesse Ferguson, a former deputy executive director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “There are too many Republicans ( in office) in a blue state whose voters don’t approve of the Trump agenda for them to be re- elected.”
Nationally, Democrats are buoyed by their Dec. 12 special election win in Alabama, where Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a U. S. Senate seat in 25 years. They also scored big wins in the New Jersey and Vir-
ginia governors’ races in November and had better- than- expected performances in other special elections.
The president’s party generally loses seats in midterm elections, and Trump’s historically low approval ratings leave reason for Republicans to fret going into 2018.
“I see a historical trend cutting against us,” House Speaker Paul Ryan, R- Wis., told the Wall Street Journal on Dec. 19. “We’ve got the wind at our face.”
To win the majority, House Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats, and Republicans who now hold a 241- 194 majority have more seats in play, including several in New York and New Jersey.
The districts held by GOP Reps. John Faso of Kinderhook, N. Y., Claudia Tenney of New Hartford, N. Y., and Frank LoBiondo of Ventnor, N. J. — who is not seeking re- election — are rated toss- ups by the non- partisan election newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Several other Republicans in the states and one Democrat are also considered vulnerable.
“A good night for Democrats is probably picking up four or more seats combined between the two states,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Kondik said prime targets for Democrats in New York and New Jersey will be GOP districts that haven’t been competitive recently and those where Clinton won more votes than former President Obama — such as Reps. Leonard Lance’s and Rodney Frelinghuysen’s districts in New Jersey.
Also targeted will be districts where Clinton underperformed Obama that are traditional House battleground districts.
In the two states, Democrats stand the best chance of flipping South Jersey’s 2nd District, an open seat in 2018.
Democrats are encouraged by the candidacy of State Sen. Jeff Van Drew, someone they have wanted to run for a long time, Kondik said.
There are positive signs for Democrats in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, which gave Democrat Phil Murphy a more than 13- percentage point win over Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, said Brendan Gill, who ran Murphy’s campaign.
“Our race was a referendum on Gov. ( Chris) Christie and President Trump,” Gill said.