Impeachment a hot UK bet
‘ People want to see him fall,’ oddsmaker says
LONDON – One year into Donald Trump’s presidency, the odds that he’ll be a short- timer are the highest ever, a top bookmaker reported.
Trump’s chances of being forced out of office before the end of his term Jan. 20, 2021, stand at 64%, according to Dublin- based Paddy Power, which takes bets in Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The previous high was 60% in August after reports that special counsel Robert Mueller was using a grand jury to compel people to testify in an investigation into allegations that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to meddle in the U. S. election.
Lee Price, a Paddy Power spokesman, said that since the firm began taking Trump- related bets a little more than a year ago, at least 10,000 bets averaging about $ 35 have been placed on Trump being impeached. Only 82 people wagered that he won’t be impeached.
“Trump is a massive talking point in the U. K., he’s in our newspapers every day, and ultimately when it comes to this particular market, peoplewant to see him fall,” Price said. Hesaid that since the recent publication of Michael Wolff’s Fire and Fury, a critical book about Trump’s White House, Paddy Power’s probability for impeachment in 2018 increased to 40%, up from 27%.
The majority of Paddy Power’s betting business is on sports, such as soccer, darts, cricket, rugby and tennis, but it also offers wagers on politics, entertainment, special events and the weird.
The British appetite for Trump- related bets has been so intense that last year, Paddy Power appointed a head of Trump betting. “People are betting on Trump like no person ever before,” said Joe Lee, who has that post. “Trump has single- handedly made political betting big again.”
Rival British gambling firms offer slightly more favorable odds.
“His position right now is the most stable it’s been since July, and he’s odds- on at 4/ 5 to last his full term,” said Betfair spokeswoman Katie Baylis, referring to a 56% probability.
“Compare that to the end of last year, when he was similar odds not to go the distance,” Baylis said. “And it seems as he nears the anniversary of his inauguration, that punters ( gamblers) at least believe 2018 is looking fairly safe for him.”