Red Raiders: 3rd seed, 1st choice
Best first-round matchup
Marquette vs. Murray State. Marquette, led by high-scoring guard Markus Howard (25.1 points per game), appeared to be headed for the Big East regular-season title but lost its last four games, including at home against Georgetown and Creighton. They routed atlarge selection St. John’s in the conference tournament before losing to Seton Hall. Marquette now faces dynamic guard Ja Morant, leader of a Racers team that has won 11 in a row, including beating at-large team Belmont in the Ohio Valley tournament final. Morant averages 24.6 points, 10 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 36.5 minutes. Murray State averages 83 points, Marquette 78.
Potential upset
After Murray State over Marquette, look to the second round. If Syracuse beats Baylor, it’s exactly the kind of team that can take down Gonzaga. It plays a zone defense that’s tough to prepare for in a short amount of time, and it’s fine playing at a slower pace.
The sleeper
Buffalo got a taste last year, when it routed fourth-seeded Arizona in the first round before running into Kentucky in the second. If the Bulls get past St. John’s or Arizona State — both intriguing sleepers — they would face Texas Tech, but they have the playing style to push the Red Raiders. Nevada has all of the components to give any team a hard time, but if Jordan Caroline’s Achilles’ tendon continues to be a problem, the Wolf Pack won’t be the same.
The winner
The easy choice here is Gonzaga, especially now that Killian Tillie is back from a foot injury. But in addition to a potentially tough second-round matchup, Florida State lurks in the round of 16. The Seminoles eliminated the Bulldogs last year, so Gonzaga would have plenty of motivation in a rematch. But Florida State is just like it was last season — tall, athletic and deep. So the pick is Texas Tech.