IMPEACHMENT IS FAR FROM OVER
As Democrats announced two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump on Tuesday morning — abuse of power and obstruction of Congress — I heard the country breathe an audible sigh of relief.
Our long, national nightmare is finally over.
Anxieties over would-they or wouldn’t-they, the constant public opinion polling updates, hours-long hearings, cable news arguments over the prudence or peril of pursuing such a serious course of rebuke against the president, market uncertainty and hand-wringing over how this may affect 2020 — all of this can finally stop, and just in time for the holidays when we need a break, no matter which side of impeachment you are on.
Impeachment — once approved by the full House — goes to the Senate for what is likely to be a formality vote, wherein the Republican majority will not decide to convict and remove Trump from office. But for all intents and purposes, the House Democrats just punctuated two years of endless speculation.
Well, I hate to be a Grinch, but this might not actually be the end of it.
Just as we’re wrapping up this seemingly never-ending news cycle, it’s not all that hard to imagine the whole thing happening again, before November of 2020 — and there are a few reasons why.
First, there’s a bizarre and downright naive false expectation that impeaching Trump will somehow change his behavior; this false expectation has often justified the act of impeachment itself for Democrats.
Barry Berke, Democratic counsel for the House Judiciary Committee, warned Monday that if Trump isn’t impeached for this round of bad behavior, “our imagination is the only limit to what President Trump may do next or what a future president may do next to abuse his powers.”
But Trump doesn’t believe he did anything wrong and has even leaned into the very abuse of power he’s accused of, asking China and others to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, and egging on Rudy Giuliani to keep at it in Ukraine.
Trump will, most likely, continue to test the fences of our democracy for weaknesses, which will inevitably include more abuses of power.
If Democrats were constitutionally obligated the first time — and I believe they were — won’t they be constitutionally obligated the next? And the next?
To wit, just last week, before this impeachment was even sewn up, Texas Rep. Al Green said Democrats would pursue impeachment several times if the Senate doesn’t vote to convict Trump.
“The Constitution allows a president to be impeached more than once,” Green told his colleagues in the House. “If we impeach now, or at some time in the near future, for one issue that we dearly should, then we find later that the president has other issues that merit impeachment, we can impeach again.”
Spoiler alert: They will find later that the president has “other issues.”
To that very point, the second reason this might not be over: We still don’t know everything.
My friend Paul Begala, a CNN commentator and Democratic strategist who has been through this once before with Bill Clinton, stunned fellow panelists Monday night with a prediction: “This is not the last impeachment we will cover for Donald J. Trump.”
His rationale?
Ongoing court fights around forcing the testimony of former White House counsel Don McGahn could reveal new information. “This impeachment may be done by then,” he said, “But you know what, impeachment is not a single-shot weapon. The Constitution does not say it’s a one-and-done deal.”
Finally, for all the moral posturing, impeachment is fundamentally a political act with political consequences, and it’s safe to assume many Democrats are hoping this will damage the president politically.
But it may not — impeachment may end up helping Trump, especially if he isn’t actually thrown out of office over it.
Prepare to see some very frustrated Democrats over the next few months if Trump’s approval numbers start ticking up in spite of this “very strong rebuke” by the House.
Then, don’t be surprised when impeaching the president is no longer the thing keeping our democracy as we know it from imploding, but removing Trump is.
Barack Obama’s former acting Solicitor General Neal Katyal, author of “Impeach: The Case Against Donald Trump,” made that case, saying that leaving it up to voters next November “makes no sense.” “If you don’t remove this president, he has said he will do it again. I think we have to worry about exactly that. That’s the whole point. You can’t just let this conduct go unpunished.”
Ideally and conventionally, impeachment is used judiciously and to serious effect — constraining the current president and warning future presidents.
But Trump defies ideals and conventions.
When this otherwise ignominious act has little effect on his corrupt ambitions or his reputation, Democrats could very well try to double — or even triple — down.
The bottom line? Don’t get too comfortable. We could be in for a long road ahead.
“IF WE IMPEACH NOW, OR AT SOME TIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE, FOR ONE ISSUE THAT WE DEARLY SHOULD, THEN WE FIND LATER THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS OTHER ISSUES THAT MERIT IMPEACHMENT, WE CAN IMPEACH AGAIN.” U.S. REP. AL GREEN, D-TEXAS