Dems head toward House control but struggle to gain seats
WASHINGTON — Democrats drove Wednesday toward extending their control of the House for two more years, but their expectations of expanding their majority seemed to be waning as they failed to defeat any Republican incumbents in initial returns.
Freshmen Democrats Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala became Election Day’s first incumbent casualties, falling in adjacent South Florida districts in a state where President Donald Trump seemed to consolidate his support among Cuban voters.
Democrats as expected picked up a pair of North Carolina seats vacated by GOP incumbents after a court- ordered remapping made the districts more Democratic. But as Tuesday turned into Wednesday on the East Coast, the day’s results were developing into a disappointing election for the party.
Instead, the parties swapped a handful of seats apiece, underscoring returns that early on suggested a status- quo House election, with Democrats holding onto their majority with modest gains at best.
There were no early victories by Democrats in long-shot races. Republicans retained seats that Democrats had hoped to capture, for example, in central North Carolina and around Little Rock, Arkansas.
And with GOP expectations for capturing the House all but nonexistent, they were likely to view an Election Day with little change in Democrats’ strength as almost acceptable. Even so, they are sure to face internal questions about why they remain trapped in the chamber’s minority. A major question would be how to regain suburban voters who have fled the GOP in droves, largely over their distaste for Trump.
Should Democrats retain the House majority as expected, it would mark only the second time in a quarter century that they’ve controlled the chamber for two consecutive two-year Congresses. The first period ran from 2007 through 2010, Nancy Pelosi’s initial run as speaker.
In another indication that the voting wasn’t producing dramatic gains for Democrats, four-term GOP Rep. Rodney Davis won in rural central Illinois in what was viewed as a tossup race. His victory came despite expenditures exceeding $5 million by Democratic groups,
While early surprises were few, dozens of hotly fought races remained undecided into the evening.
Scores of both parties’ incumbents from safe districts were easily reelected. These included progressive star Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez in New York City and both parties’ No. 3 House leaders, Democrat James Clyburn of South Carolina and Republican Liz Cheney of Wyoming.
Democrats’ hopes of protecting their majority and even expanding it were based on public anxiety over the pandemic, Trump’s alienation of suburban voters and a vast fundraising edge.
Both parties’ operatives agreed that the GOP was mostly playing defense and would be fortunate to limit Democratic gains to a modest single digits. Democrats control the House 232-197, with five open seats and one independent. It takes 218 seats to control the chamber.
Mucarsel-Powell lost to Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez. That race saw the two sides spend over $26 million, making it one of the country’s most expensive, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.
Mucarsel-Powell and Shalala both represent districts that Trump lost badly in his 2016 presidential race. Shalala, 79, was the House’s oldest freshman and had been secretary of health under President Bill Clinton.