My warped Ouija board betrayed me in 2018, but there’s always next year!
The biggest local news story of 2018 was the announcement by Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel that he would not seek a third term.
Whoops.
Not only did I fail to predict this massively disruptive event, I failed even to ask a question about Emanuel in last December’s predict-the-news survey, the annual feature in which I compete with the hive mind of readers to see who can best read the goat entrails that allegedly foretell the future.
The only question I asked about mayoral jockeying was whether former police Superintendent Garry McCarthy would enter the race to challenge Emanuel.
I guessed no. The majority of readers who responded agreed: McCarthy would not enter the race. Which, of course, he did.
Readers and I were also collectively wrong when we predicted that President Donald Trump’s spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders would leave the White House (she’s an endurance prevaricator, evidently), that 2018 would be the hottest year on record (climate scientists tell us it will be No. 4), that Trump would fire special counsel Robert Mueller and that the U.S. unemployment rate would rise (it’s fallen to a 49-year low of 3.7 percent).
There was a notable lack of sooth in my sayings. I was also wrong about the other biggest local news story of 2018, the trial of Chicago police Officer Jason Van Dyke in the shooting death of Laquan McDonald.
The weary cynic in me predicted that, despite nearly overwhelming video evidence against him, Van Dyke would get every benefit of the doubt in court and be acquitted as most accused cops are. Readers, however, correctly forecast that Van Dyke would be convicted, but on a lesser charge than first-degree murder.
I wrongly said there would be no vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2018 and that the court would rule against the Christian baker from Colorado who refused to create wedding cakes for gay couples. I was wrong when I guessed the Supremes would grant sentencing relief to imprisoned former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, that the U.S. would engage in acts of war against North Korea, that the Cubs would trade slugger Kyle Schwarber and that self-driving cars would be appearing on the streets of Chicago by the end of 2018.
The collective wisdom of readers knew better.
Readers also correctly picked state Sen. Kwame Raoul to win the race for Illinois attorney general (I picked former Gov. Pat Quinn), correctly predicted that President Trump’s approval rating would be higher than 35 percent just before Christmas (It was at 39 percent; I said it would be lower), that the U.S. gross domestic product would be growing at a better than 3 percent annual rate (it was estimated at 3.4 percent in the third quarter; I thought it would be lower) and that the consumer confidence index would stay over 120 (I predicted it would fall, but it was at 128.1 at last look).
I had my little victories, though. I was right and readers were wrong when I said there would be no deal for the so-called DACA kids in 2018; that the Bulls would fire coach Fred Hoiberg; that the Democrats would not win back control of the U.S. Senate; that President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, would not be indicted; and that challenger Fritz Kaegi would oust incumbent Cook County Assessor Joseph Berrios.
And readers and I were both right when we picked Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democratic gubernatorial hopeful J.B. Pritzker to win their party’s primaries, and for Pritzker to prevail in November. We had the Democrats maintaining control in the General Assembly and winning control of the U.S. House.
We correctly predicted Cook County voters would re-elect County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and approve a nonbinding referendum to legalize recreational marijuana (it passed with 69 percent support). We accurately agreed that Amazon would not choose Chicago for its second headquarters, that the Tiger Woods-designed championship golf course on the South Side would not have broken ground by the end of 2018 and that at least one of the famous men accused in the #MeToo scandal would be criminally charged (Harvey Weinstein was indicted in May).
We predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, then hovering over 25,000, would fall; that the White Sox wouldn’t win 80 games (they won just 62); that Trump wouldn’t get money to build his border wall; and that his Justice Department wouldn’t make a serious effort to indict Hillary Clinton.
All told I went 19 for 37 (51 percent correct) and readers went 24 for 35 (70 percent correct), giving readers a 5-4 edge in annual victories since 2010, which is as far back as my records go.
But, as I always say, particularly when I get beaten, it’s not about winning and losing, it’s about anticipation — collectively pondering the known unknowns as we reach an artificial line of demarcation. Looking back at all the surprises of 2018 prepares us, at least a bit, for the surprises — let’s optimistically not call them shocks — of 2019.
If you go online to chicagotribune.com/ zorn you’ll find the 40-question predict-2019 survey challenge, where I’ve asked:
■ Who’ll be Chicago’s next mayor ?
■ How will the Bears do in the NFL playoffs?
■ Will the General Assembly advance a constitutional amendment for a graduated income tax, as incoming Gov. Pritzker has promised?
■ Which direction will the stock market and unemployment rate go?
■ As the 2020 presidential campaigning is getting underway a year from now, who will be the leading Democratic hopeful?
■ Will President Donald Trump run for re-election?
You have until midnight Monday to click your picks. In my Sunday, Jan. 6, column I’ll reveal my predictions and yours. Then we’ll all sit back and watch fate have its way with us, as it always does.
Re: Tweets
The winner of this week’s online reader poll for funniest tweet is a pedantic paraphrase of a classic lyrical assertion by Sir Mix-a-Lot: “I like big butts, and I will express myself with integrity in regards to this subject,” by “Sarge the Aging.”
To receive an email alert after each new poll is posted, go to chicagotribune.com/ newsletters and sign up under Change of Subject. I predict you will be glad you did.