I predict that readers’ predictions for 2019 are mostly off-base. But I could be — and probably am — wrong
I was about to write that the safe pick for the next mayor of Chicago — the prediction for 2019 that would align me with the consensus of my very smart readership — would be Toni Preckwinkle. But questions that arose Thursday, about a campaign contribution allegedly connected to third-party extortion schemes, make me hesitate.
Yes, she is a formidably serious person, she has eight years of political executive experience as Cook County Board president and is chair of the Cook County Democratic Party, all of which makes her a strong candidate to succeed Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who has chosen not to run for re-election. But links to the federal investigation that has led to charges against Ald. Ed Burke, 14th, could hurt her campaign.
Before that news broke, 42 percent of more than 800 readers who responded to my annual predict-the-news survey picked Preckwinkle to prevail over at least a dozen hopefuls who will face off in the Feb. 26 general election, and, assuming she doesn’t win more than 50 percent of the total vote, to win over the second-place finisher in the April 2 runoff.
But my often unreliable psychic sense tells me that Chicago’s next mayor will be Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza, the second choice of readers with 25 percent predicting her victory. She’s energetic. She’s bold, quick-witted and, at 46, comparatively young among the candidates considered to be in the top tier. Yes, she’ll have to answer for her close ties to controversial establishment Democrats, but she’s a good campaigner and I’m guessing voters will ultimately see her occupying the sweet spot between insider and independent thinker where the next mayor must be to lead the city forward.
I also have the feeling that former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas will emerge at the end of 2019 as the leading Democratic hopeful for president in 2020. Yes, he lost to charmless Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in November and, yes, the primary grind may not be kind to him as starry-eyed progressives learn that he’s not nearly as liberal as they’ve imagined. But voters like to look ahead, and the youthful, eloquent O’Rouke says “tomorrow” whereas former Vice President Joe Biden, the top pick of readers, says “yesterday.”
All told, my forecasts for 2019 disagreed with the reader forecasts on 24 of the 40 questions.
Readers differed with my predictions that:
Chicago police Officer Jason Van Dyke will receive a sentence of 10 to 19 years. (Readers said it will be less than 10 years.)
President Donald Trump will not run for re-election. This prediction reflects my view that severe legal or political troubles will end his political career, though probably not his term in office.
If Trump does run, however, there will be no GOP challenger with more than 20 percent support in polls of Republican voters.
Trump’s job approval, currently at 39 percent, will fall below 35 percent.
There will not be a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
The public will see Trump’s tax returns. Bonus prediction, they’ll be appalling.
A federal judge will sentence Gen. Michael Flynn to prison despite the request of prosecutors and defense attorneys that the judge not do so.
The national average price of regular gas will be higher than $3 per gallon, the unemployment rate will rise above 5 percent and the growth in the U.S. gross domestic product will limp along under 2 percent.
Trump will pardon or commute the sentence of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Trump is simply saving this flashgrenade of a news story for when he needs to distract the public from an ominous turn of events in the White House.
Illinois’ population will grow and its pension shortfall will shrink. Perhaps this is just the hopium talking, but the dismal trends here have to reverse some time, right? Right?
The Illinois General Assembly will not vote to legalize recreational marijuana or to allow a casino in Chicago. Years of experience have told me never to bet on a Chicago casino and that enthusiasm for pot will wane as most of us weigh the issue seriously for the first time.
Facebook will part ways with founder Mark Zuckerberg.
When it comes to sports, optimistic readers disagree with my predictions that the Bears won’t even make it to the NFC championship game, that the Cubs will miss the playoffs, that the White Sox won’t win 75 or more games and that Northwestern football Coach Pat Fitzgerald will leave for the NFL, his many contrary assurances notwithstanding.
Keep in mind that readers trounced me for accuracy by 19 percentage points last year.
Readers and I are already 1-for-1 in our forecasts.
When the survey closed at midnight Monday, New Year’s Eve, 67 percent of readers had registered their agreement with my prediction that the feds would charge veteran Chicago Ald. Burke with a crime in 2019. On Thursday came the announcement that Burke had been charged with attempted extortion for allegedly using the power of his office to solicit business for his law firm.
Readers and I also agreed that:
Trump will pardon at least one person indicted or implicated in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, and that Trump will not get $3 billion or more to pay for the construction of new barriers on the southern border. Through his mendacious, racist dogwhistling rhetoric, Trump has toxified even the sensible idea that, in places, the fences and walls that separate the U.S. from Mexico need to be rehabilitated or reinforced.
The Democratic U.S. House will not vote to impeach Trump or to enact a “Medicare-for-all” bill.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders will step down as White House spokeswoman.
Trump will back off on his threat to dramatically hike tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports.
Global temperatures will be higher than they were in 2018, the fourth-hottest on record.
Great Britain will hold an “on second thought” Brexit vote.
Amazon will buy a major bricks-and-mortar retail chain.
The Dan Ryan Expressway will not be renamed for Barack Obama, and the city will not break ground on that proposed Tiger Woods-designed championship golf course on the South Side.
A major Chicago publication will reduce its print schedule in favor of online content delivery.
Readers and I agree that the White Sox will not sign coveted free agents Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, that Tiger Woods — him again! — won’t win one of golf ’s four major tournaments and that Alabama will beat Clemson for the NCAA football championship Monday night.
The big unknowns about 2019 are hard to turn into multiple-choice questions. Will J.B. Pritzker be an effective governor? Will Chicago’s new mayor hit the ground running with meaningful initiatives to improve the lives of everyday Chicagoans? What major alterations, if any, will we see in the Lincoln Yards development proposal?
Will the newly empowered national Democratic Party overplay its hand and allow momentum to shift back to the Republicans? Will the parties reach smart compromises on immigration and health care?
Will the Mueller probe largely exonerate Trump, calming him down and steadying the ship of state? Or will Mueller issue a damning report that plunges us into the most chaotic, perilous year since the Civil War?
Your guess is as good as — or probably better than — mine.
To read a full report on the survey results, visit www.chicagotribune.com/ zorn. The Tweet of the Week poll will return next week.