What will J.B. Pritzker do with his clout?
On Monday, J.B. Pritzker will be sworn in as Illinois’ 43rd governor. He’ll be surrounded by a Democratic supermajority legislature. He helped build it.
Pritzker spent more than $160 million of his own money to win the keys to the Governor’s Mansion. But he also shoveled dough into Democratic organizations statewide. He bankrolled get-outthe-vote efforts, mail pieces and campaign staff. He sent money to dozens of Chicago aldermen, the Cook County Democratic Party, House and Senate organizations, labor unions, statewide candidates, and Democrats in townships and counties. He has patched together his own organization.
As chairman of the Democratic Party of Illinois, House Speaker Michael Madigan often gets credit for the party’s successes. But it was Pritzker’s muscle — and of course his checkbook — that pushed Democrats into historically Republican territories on Nov. 6, toppling GOP incumbents in state and federal races and spraying the state blue. This is his Illinois now — if he wants it to be.
Will Pritzker eclipse Madigan?
Pritzker will stroll into office with this friendly legislature he helped install. That advantage could elevate him higher even than Madigan, the nation’s longest-serving House speaker. Will Pritzker protect his own reputation and be a governor who demands performance? Will he use his leverage to insist on a truly balanced budget? On pro-growth strategies to keep residents and employers from fleeing? On reforms voters have been clamoring for, such as fair redistricting maps and term limits for politicians?
As a businessman, Pritzker knows high property taxes, government debt and political instability have been driving population numbers downward. Residents don’t trust government. They’re giving up. Where Illinois is shrinking, its Midwestern neighbors are growing.
‘Illinois Exodus’ is swelling
Illinois’ obligations to its pension system continue to squeeze spending on education, social services and other state programs. The state owes $7.4 billion in unpaid bills. And new U.S. Census numbers show the “Illinois Exodus” is ramping up. For the fifth straight year, the state lost more residents than it gained. The net reduction means 45,116 fewer Illinoisans from 2017 to 2018. Only the state of New York lost more residents.
There are undeniable truths in all these numbers.
The solutions cannot be limited to new revenue raised by expanded gambling and legalizing recreational marijuana. Employers want deeper workers’ compensation reform and property tax relief. They want spending cuts. They want less interference from Springfield. They want lower taxes. And all taxpayers, be they individuals or businesses, want a state government that is accountable to the people whose money it spends.
In other states, Democrats have led reforms
Voters rejected a second term for Gov. Bruce Rauner. But he was right during his election night concession speech when he said Democrats in other states have championed the pro-growth policies Illinois desperately needs. “Let’s realize many states have made the exact changes that we need to make in Illinois — yes, they have — they have made them in other states on a bipartisan basis, led by Democrats,” he said the evening of Nov. 6. ■ Rhode Island’s Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo, elected to a second term in November, revamped that state’s pension system by curbing costly benefits and offering employees 401(k)style plans. Raimondo also instructed state agencies to cut regulations that were onerous to employers. The result was a 30 percent reduction in state regulations and 8,000 fewer pages of rules and codes.
■ California Democrats led on redistricting reform. A dozen other states have followed with fairer models that include less partisan influence. Illinois voters have been begging for those changes from a recalcitrant legislature. Unless Pritzker takes a leadership role on that issue, the next legislative map, drawn in 2021 after the 2020 census, likely will be a repeat exercise in incumbent protection and hyperpartisan politicking. Democrats fashioned the last set of maps for state and federal offices behind closed doors. They drew incumbents’ homes, their churches, their friends and their voting bases into each district on a blockby-block basis. It was patently undemocratic and self-serving — politicians choosing their constituents rather than the other way around. ■ Democrats in Arizona joined with majority Republicans to change that state’s constitutional clause on pensions and curb costly, annual pay increases for retired workers. Yes, Democrats were on board. Those changes have stabilized funds in Arizona’s pension system. Illinois Democrats, by comparison, have allowed the unfunded liabilities in the state pension funds to grow from about $40 billion to $133 billion since they took over both chambers of the legislature in 2003.
Pritzker and public unions
Pritzker will serve as governor of the sixth-largest state with a personal checkbook and a political organization Democrats need as much as they covet and in some cases fear. He can answer not to Madigan’s Democratic Party but instead to the voters who chose him to replace Rauner.
How to gauge whether Pritzker will operate independently? One big clue will be the way he concludes contract negotiations with the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. Union leaders think they got Pritzker elected, and therefore he owes them. In fact, Pritzker’s fiduciary responsibility is to all Illinoisans. High state and local taxes are discouraging job growth and driving the exodus. Rauner refused to increase labor costs, negotiating contracts that froze wages for other unions. Will Pritzker show resolve in his dealings with AFSCME or will he cave?
After the sweet policy promises, then what?
On inauguration day, Pritzker will murmur the sweet policy promises those voters want to hear — more spending on this, more spending on that. He also knows, though, that the state government he’ll lead is insolvent, unable to pay its bills as they come due, and gravely vulnerable in the inevitable next recession, whenever it arrives.
That said, Pritzker enters office with gigantic advantages. He can leverage his financial and electoral independence to diminish the power of the establishment Democrats who created, and who guard, the miserable status quo. There are many.
Pritzker knows that Illinois has to rescue its finances and generate more jobs. He’s beholden to no one. What will he do with his clout?