What’s at stake for Pace, Nagy, Trubisky in final 6 games?
The despair was palpable on the asphalt ramp outside the Bears locker room Sunday night at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. As players filed out of their cramped, antiquated quarters to meet with reporters after dropping to 4-6, it was hard to believe how bleak their season had become.
When the Bears’ 2019 schedule came out, the week before Thanksgiving called for intoxicating optimism and justifiable excitement about a postseason run. Penned on the itinerary were a deep appreciation for the offense’s progress and the defense’s steadiness, for coach Matt Nagy’s advances as a strategist and quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s comprehensive command.
Those things have been painted over by Wite-Out as the Bears have lost five of their last six games. The giddiness that carried this city through the holidays last year has been replaced by frustration and dread, not to mention anxiety about all of the uncomfortable questions looming.
Still, the Bears must navigate six remaining games — more than one-third of the season — beginning Sunday against the Giants at Soldier Field. What do we need to watch closely as this team plays out the string? What factors will set the franchise’s offseason course? How do the Bears get to January without fully imploding?
Tribune writers Rich Campbell and Dan Wiederer look ahead in this edition of “Real Talk.”
Rich Campbell: It wasn’t supposed to be this way, Dan, but here we are, back to the familiar challenge of squeezing meaning from the home stretch of a wayward season.
This go-round, with preseason expectations so wholly unmet, there are three main characters in the story: Matt Nagy, Mitch Trubisky and general manager Ryan Pace. We get to see two of them each week, so let’s start there.
We heard Nagy on Wednesday detail Trubisky’s recent improvement. Without question, progress beats the alternative. But I’ll bet most fans don’t share Nagy’s contentment with Trubisky making a 12-yard checkdown against the Lions.
Considering the offense ranks last in the NFL in yards per pass, I don’t see a realistic development over the final six games that would cancel the need for the Bears to add significant competition for the starting quarterback job in the offseason. In my estimation, Trubisky’s recent performance, as ineffective as it has been, does not merit a benching. But this offense has to start scoring more points, pronto.
Dan Wiederer: Nagy’s public show of confidence in Trubisky on Wednesday felt so flimsy. “The last two weeks, and I’m speaking in particular for Mitch,” Nagy said, “he has without a doubt gotten a lot better at the quarterback position. Decision-making, throws. Where he’s at the last two weeks has been a lot better.” Wow.
A lot better? This is how low the bar is? The last two weeks might qualify as improvement for Trubisky, but they still register as subpar by NFL quarterback standards.
In Week 10, Trubisky had three touchdown passes but threw for only 173 yards against a feeble Lions defense that has allowed eight quarterbacks to throw for at least 280 yards. The Bears didn’t run a play in Lions territory until less than 2 minutes remained in the second quarter.
Sunday, the Bears scored on only one of the 11 possessions Trubisky oversaw. Trailing 10-7 in the second half, the offense had four series to tie the game or take the lead and managed just 30 yards and one first down in 14 plays.
Deep into Trubisky’s third season, the Bears might have no other choice but to celebrate incremental improvement in the basics. But the big picture shows us this offense is broken. Since the open date, the offense has averaged 15 points per game with nine touchdowns and 23 three-and-outs in 57 possessions. All of this reflects on Trubisky. It reflects on Nagy. It reflects on Pace.
Campbell: Pace’s thorough assessments of his handpicked coach and quarterback are of the utmost importance, and we’ll learn more at his end-of-season news conference. But it’s fair to assume he possesses a patience most fans do not.
To that point, we’ll get a good idea whether Pace and Nagy are like-minded about the quarterback from how Nagy handles Trubisky down the stretch. Nagy on Monday said, in the context of keeping Trubisky as the starter, “We want to keep growing.” He has six more chances to back that up with action.
As I said, we’ve seen nothing to indicate Trubisky might suddenly elevate his game to a level that would eliminate the need to establish competition in 2020. But could he at least finish strong to change the final impression of his 2019 season? He would have to begin Sunday against a Giants secondary that has allowed 12 completions of at least 40 yards, more than any team.
If we get to Sunday night and the Bears are once again lamenting their lack of explosive plays, whoooo boy.
Wiederer: Whoooo boy? Or, “Well, yeah, that’s about right”? We’re 10 games into this season and, conservatively, the Bears have been inept on offense in some way in eight of those games. It’s a different version of the same story week after week after week. So why would anyone expect a sudden breakthrough Sunday?
You want scoreless first halves? There have been four of those.
You need red-zone problems? Pull up the Chargers game.
You want botched third-and-1 plays? The Bears have failed to convert eight times out of 14 tries in that situation.
We’ve seen receivers running wrong routes and dropping passes. We’ve watched an offensive line that can’t consistently generate push in the running game. We’ve seen a tight end group in such disarray that undrafted rookie Jesper Horsted is going to play Sunday. And we’ve noticed that Trubisky is having his worst season.
Nagy was brought in to develop the quarterback and ignite fireworks in the offense. Those things aren’t happening. Twenty-seven NFL teams average at least 300 yards per game. The Bears have reached 300 yards once in 10 outings. That’s astounding. The offense has failed to score 20 points seven times.
So over these final six games, don’t we have as much to learn about Nagy’s development and potential as we do about Trubisky’s?
Campbell: No question. We’re 27 games into Nagy’s tenure, and there he was this week, openly regretting his call of a quarterback option run to the short side of the field on a failed third-and-1 against the Rams.
Nagy knew of Trubisky’s right hip pointer and he still called for his quarterback to run it on that crucial play. Of course, not every play call is going to be perfect. But I can understand every fan’s frustration about how mistakes like that are still limiting the offense.
One offensive splurge won’t erase a season’s worth of ineptitude. It must be sustained improvement — specifically, consistent touchdown drives — over multiple games against quality teams. The December schedule provides that proving ground. But at this point, reasonable minds are anchored in see-it-to-believe-it mode.
For that to come to fruition, the Bears need better play from guys besides Trubisky. From a draft-and-develop standpoint, Pace and Nagy need strong finishes from high-round draft picks Anthony Miller, David Montgomery and James Daniels to help validate the direction of the offense. Defensively, Leonard Floyd’s future is uncertain, and Roquan Smith needs more productive games like he played against the Rams.
Wiederer: Pace emphasized on his first day on the job that building through the draft is the smartest route to pursuing championships. Yet the Bears have struggled to establish a sturdy foundation or assemble a collection of true gamechangers with their highest draft picks.
Pace has made four selections in the top 10: Kevin White, Floyd, Trubisky and Smith. He has made eight picks on Day 2: Eddie Goldman, Hroniss Grasu, Cody Whitehair, Jonathan Bullard, Adam Shaheen, Daniels, Miller and Montgomery. At some point, a team’s long-term fate is tied directly to how players drafted in those first three rounds develop and produce.
To this point, “Pace’s 12” haven’t provided many reasons for optimism. To put it another way, of those dozen players, which ones would other teams be lining up to get a crack at? Goldman might be the only reliable player of that entire bunch, with Smith trying to join the club.
So, yes, as meaningless as these final six games are in regard to this disoriented team wandering toward the end of a lost season with no chance of playing in January, what’s at stake for players such as Floyd, Smith, Miller, Daniels and Montgomery can’t be understated.
Campbell: Don’t forget Eddy Pineiro, who needs to prove he belongs by making kicks as the weather turns. Otherwise, the Bears must head back to the drawing board at kicker, which would only add to the inevitable offseason consternation in and around Halas Hall.
Who would have thought back in June, amid all the juice at the Bears100 Convention, that the final six games would be limited to developmental opportunities for the coach, quarterback and other players in significant roles?
Through it all, the top requirement for Nagy is to keep this group together and committed to pushing forward toward Week 17. Six games is a long time for things to go wrong, for fires to spread, for self-interests to take hold. Adversity already has challenged Nagy in ways he never was tested last season. Let’s see how his leadership skills help the Bears navigate this bumpy road.
Wiederer: You’re right. Over the next 40 days, it’s going to take a ton of effort from a bunch of important people within the organization to keep self-driven agendas from taking over, to keep dysfunction from sprouting, to keep a disappointing season from becoming a spectacular disaster. And we are a long, long way from the finish line.
But have we really reached the point where the most meaningful victories for the rest of the year will revolve around the coach’s ability to keep fires from spreading? Really? Again?
I’m starting to understand why so many people around the Chicago area have been banging their heads against the walls in recent weeks. This was supposed to be a season for this city to celebrate. In the Bears’ 100th season, there was supposed to be a playoff party to look forward to. The Bears were supposed to have a half-dozen or more players awaiting invitations to the Pro Bowl. They were supposed to be collecting evidence to show this team was built for the long haul.
You remember the energy pulsing through downtown on Sept. 5? You remember the vibe as we walked through Grant Park toward Soldier Field a few hours before the season began? You remember all that excited curiosity and legitimate optimism this city felt about how a 2018 turnaround could pry open a five-year window of opportunity to chase a Super Bowl?
Eleven weeks later, we’re talking about developmental opportunities and fire extinguishers and the plight of an organization that seemingly has little idea how to sustain success. In the words of a good friend: Whoooo boy.