Kane still the man
Lehner tremendous, but high-scoring wing is Hawks’ MVP so far
DENVER — It’s hard to believe the first two months of the NHL season have come and gone.
It’s not so hard to believe the Blackhawks still are searching for their identity.
That is, unless their identity once again is a team that struggles early before making a second-half run at the postseason. Hmmm …
While you ponder that, let’s mull over a few recent topics affecting the Hawks in our latest point/counterpoint.
Point: Patrick Kane is the Blackhawks MVP so far.
Counterpoint: Robin Lehner is the Blackhawks MVP so far.
The shocking thing is that anyone is close to Kane for Hawks MVP, let alone a last-minute free-agent pickup who signed a one-year deal when his original team let him walk.
Let’s take a moment and consider where the Hawks would be without Lehner, who entered Saturday’s game against the Avalanche leading the NHL in save percentage.
To begin with, Corey Crawford would have been playing more frequently and the backup goalie likely would have been Collin Delia. Crawford hasn’t been as good as Lehner, but he still has been excellent and providing what you would expect from a No. 1 goalie.
Crawford prefers a heavier workload, so it’s likely his numbers wouldn’t have suffered if he were starting 70% of the games, as he has done in past seasons when healthy. Instead of Lehner, the Hawks probably would have settled for Delia, who played well when Crawford was injured last season and earned himself a three-year contract.
The only problem is Delia is off to a terrible start in Rockford with an .863 save percentage and 4.09 goals-against average and has fallen behind Kevin Lankinen and Matt Tomkins on the depth chart.
Swap out Lehner and add any of the three IceHogs goalies, and you don’t have a team within a few points of a playoff spot. You have a team within a few points of the Red Wings for the NHL’s worst record.
Kane has been great as usual. He’s on pace for 105 points — not far off last season, when he had a career-high 110 — and the
14-game point streak he took into Saturday’s game in Denver coincided with the Hawks starting to turn their season around after a slow start.
Unlike last season, Kane is carrying the offense almost by himself. Alex DeBrincat hasn’t scored a goal in 10 games, Jonathan Toews is on pace for a career-worst 43 points and Kirby Dach isn’t ready to be an offensive force.
So who’s the Hawks MVP right now? It’s a very close call but it still has to be Kane. At least the Hawks would have Crawford to pick up more starts if Lehner weren’t around.
Kane is simply irreplaceable.
Point: Corey Crawford should replace Robin Lehner for shootouts.
Counterpoint: Interesting idea, but it’s not happening.
Get this gimmick out of your head. The chances of coach Jeremy Colliton replacing Lehner with Crawford for a shootout are close to zero.
The notion of Lehner getting pulled for a shootout came up last week after he was brilliant in regulation and overtime but didn’t stop either shootout attempt in a 2-1 loss to the Stars. Lehner, who has stopped just 16 of 43 attempts in the last 15 shootouts he has played in, fanned the discussion by saying he’s willing to give up the net if asked.
But Colliton and Crawford both dismissed that possibility, and there’s virtually no record of NHL teams trying this strategy. The Maple Leafs tried it in 2008 and the Islanders in 2011, but both times the replacement goalie ended up losing.
Bringing in a shootout specialist won’t become a fad in the NHL. This isn’t baseball. Yes, the Hawks need every point they can get in the standings, but this isn’t how they’ll go about doing it.
Point: Alex DeBrincat is in a slump.
Counterpoint: Sometimes, the puck just doesn’t go in.
Let’s look at two players.
Player A has 19 points (10 goals, nine assists), has put 71 shots on goal and is on the top power-play unit while playing 17 minutes, 39 seconds per game.
Player B has 19 points (five goals, 14 assists), has put 70 shots on goal and is on the top power-play unit while playing 17:48 per game.
Is one player enjoying a breakout season while the other is stuck in a mysterious slump? Of course not.
Player A is DeBrincat’s 2018-19 season after 25 games. He went on to score 41 goals and earn a three-year, $19.2 million contract extension.
Player B is DeBrincat through 25 games this season. The goals are down, but he’s getting off a similar number of shots and staying productive as a playmaker even when the puck isn’t going in the net.
The main difference is DeBrincat’s shooting percentages. He’s converting on only 7.1% of his shots after scoring on 14.1% through 25 games last season. He finished with an 18.6% shooting percentage.
So, no, DeBrincat isn’t slumping. He’s creating opportunities and putting the puck on net just as he did in his first two seasons. If he keeps that up, the goals will come.
Point: The goaltending is good enough to get the Hawks to the playoffs.
Counterpoint: No, it’s not.
As great as Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford have been, the Hawks aren’t getting to the playoffs on their backs alone.
The Hawks’ .922 save percentage is fourth-best in the league, but that tells only part of the story. The Hawks are allowing a league-high 36.2 shots per game, and history shows it’s nearly impossible to get to the postseason when doing that.
The last time a team made it to the playoffs while giving up the most shots was in 1997-98, when Dominik Hasek played in an astounding 72 games and had 13 shutouts to carry the Sabres to the postseason.
It’s not just about shots. The Hawks have given up 13.56 high-danger scoring chances per game, second-most in the league behind the Rangers according to naturalstattrick.com. And with Duncan Keith possibly out for an extended period with a groin injury, the defense is likely to get worse before it gets better.
Try not to get too excited about allowing only 23 shots to the Avalanche in Friday’s 5-2 loss. The Avs had a comfortable lead nearly the entire game and never had to make an offensive push. The Hawks will need to put together a long run of games in which shots allowed and high-danger chances are reduced.
Until then, Lehner and Crawford should remain very busy and the Hawks should remain a safe distance from the playoffs.