■ Biggs: Bears have decision to make on Floyd.
LB plays like All-Pro vs. Packers, but is he worth $13.2 million in 2020?
If Leonard Floyd played against the Packers every week, he would be an All-Pro.
If Floyd played against the Packers every week, the Bears never would have needed to engineer a trade for Khalil Mack. If Floyd could see only green and gold on the opponent’s uniform every week, his ceiling would be extraordinary.
As Floyd prepares to face the Packers for the eighth time in his career Sunday at Lambeau Field, his future is coming under the spotlight for the Bears, who announced shortly after last season they would pick up the fifth-year option in Floyd’s contract. They will have to decide if they want to continue with that option, which is estimated to pay Floyd $13.2 million in 2020.
That’s an expensive proposition general manager Ryan Pace will have to weigh. Outside linebackers coach Ted Monachino considers it a no-brainer.
“When that question gets asked, I will absolutely pound the table for Leonard,” Monachino said. “I know that they’ll ask, and all they will have to do is put the tape on and they will see the same things that I will describe to them.”
That decision will be made two or three pay grades above Monachino, and it will be an interesting one for Pace’s second firstround draft pick, especially considering the bomb his first one, wide receiver Kevin White, turned out to be. Pace is the one who has final say on whether Floyd will make it to the end of his rookie contract.
In other words, Pace is the one who can validate the pick and Floyd’s development by paying him $13.2 million. Based on average annual salary, that figure would rank 10th among outside linebackers right now. That isn’t the average salary of Floyd’s rookie contract over five years, but it gives you an idea of where that kind of money stacks up at the position.
Not bringing back Floyd would signal that the ninth pick in 2016 didn’t measure up to his draft status. It also would create a sizable void in the front seven with the Bears already needing to re-sign inside linebacker Danny Trevathan or, more likely, replace him.
It’s rare for a team to exercise a firstround pick’s fifth-year option and then cut bait before that year arrives, but it does happen. Former Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III and former Texans cornerback Kevin Johnson are two examples. Floyd’s money for 2020 would become fully guaranteed if he’s on the Bears roster when the league year begins March 18.
Floyd has been a monster against the Packers with 7½ sacks in seven games, plus 10 quarterback hits, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery and touchdown in his first experience in the rivalry as a rookie in 2016. He has two sacks in each of the last two meetings, including the 2019 opener at Soldier Field.
In 44 career games against other teams, he has 11 sacks, 33 quarterback hits, two fumble recoveries and one interception returned for a touchdown.
The disparity is vast, at least in terms of pass-rushing productivity, and Floyd has only one sack since the opener, coming in Week 9 in Philadelphia.
“I guess because they are in our division, those are guys I have been going against since my rookie year,” Floyd said, searching for an explanation. “I don’t know, man. It still all depends on rushing as a unit and containing Aaron Rodgers so that we can get sacks as a team. I honestly take the same approach I always take every week. I just seem to get home against them.”
Floyd has been on the field for 83% of the defensive snaps, up from his careerhigh 75% last season. He possesses the kind of length that can give Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari issues at times, but Bakhtiari is one of the better pass blockers in the league. Floyd is far more athletic than right tackle Bryan Bulaga, but he has that advantage on nearly every right tackle he encounters.
“The biggest thing with Leonard is he is a confidence rusher,” Monachino said. “The job he is doing right now with the little things we’re asking him to do is unbelievable. If there was a way that they could evaluate that, the guy is playing at a really, really high level. There isn’t (a stat column for that), and that’s a shame.
“Every week his approach is better. It’s unbelievable the quantum leap he’s made from a mental standpoint and a preparation standpoint. Unreal.”
Defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano and Monachino added more responsibilities for Floyd in this scheme, in both the running and passing game, and he has responded. But setting the edge against the run and being a talented zone defender versus the pass aren’t the kind of chores that get players elite money. They’re not the first abilities you’re seeking when using a top-10 pick on a player.
Monachino compared Floyd to Courtney Upshaw and Jarret Johnson, outside linebackers he worked with in Baltimore. They were solid players, not splashy, and they never got huge contracts. Upshaw was much thicker, while Floyd is more athletic than both, making him able to master more tasks versus the pass.
Assignment and alignment guys are valuable on every team. Everyone needs fit players, glue guys. But glue guys aren’t paid huge money. If the Bears keep Floyd, they project to have $39.8 million against the salary cap tied up in Mack ($26.6 million) and Floyd alone. If the cap is roughly $200 million, that means their two outside linebackers would account for 20%.
The Bears’ strength is defense, and they certainly don’t want to risk weakening that unit considering how badly the offense has underperformed this season. Moving on from Floyd and finding a cheaper alternative doesn’t necessarily mean the Bears would be able to significantly improve the roster at another position with the resources saved.
To fully consider Floyd’s value, you have to wrap your mind around the reality he is not an elite pass rusher and is unlikely to become one. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value; the question is whether that value approaches $13.2 million. It’s possible the Bears could find middle ground with Floyd on a multiyear extension, but it’s hard to imagine he would take a pay reduction without testing his value on the open market.
“We would sure hope that he is a Bear for life,” Monachino said. “That is a special guy. I don’t have anyone else that can do those things. There’s not another one in that locker room.”
Scouting report
Preston Smith, Packers OLB Information for this report was obtained from NFL scouts.
Preston Smith, 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds, is in his first season with the Packers after spending his first four seasons with the Redskins. Smith signed a four-year, $52 million contract in free agency with $16 million guaranteed.
He leads the defense with 11½ sacks, ranking sixth in the NFL and surpassing his previous career high of eight. Smith produced 24½ sacks in 64 games for the Redskins, who drafted him in the second round in 2015 from Mississippi State.
Seven of Smith’s sacks have come on third down, tied for the most in the league, and the Packers have the only defense with two players in double digits as outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith, also signed in free agency, has 10 sacks. The Smiths are the second tandem in Packers history to have 10-plus sacks in the same season, joining Reggie White (13) and Bryce Paup (11) in 1993.
“I didn’t see this type of production coming,” the scout said. “When they got Za’Darius Smith, he was their natural pass rusher on the edge with size, burst, twitch because I always looked at Preston Smith and said, ‘OK, he’s a very good football player that is a base defensive end who can play in a 3-4 because he is so long and he’s got size and he’s physical at the point of attack.’ I just didn’t see him as a premier pass rusher because he doesn’t have that elite twitch or first step off the ball like Za’Darius does.
“I’ll tell you what, he is playing his ass off. They got a steal with him. You can look at Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith as two of the best free-agent signings in the entire NFL offseason this year because of their impact in Mike Pettine’s defense. What you get with Preston Smith is he’s got a ton of pop in his pads. So when he gets a vertical push up the field, he can rock offensive tackles back on their heels, and he has super strong hands, like clubs. If you put this guy in a boxing ring, he would dominate people. He’s got so much length that he’s developed the ability to use a little speed to power and win with his hands and get home to the quarterback. He’s had an awesome season, and that has surprised me. I saw a really good football player. I didn’t see a player that could get up to the top of the league leaders in sacks. That’s what he’s done.
“After they signed him, I thought Preston Smith would be the guy that could get on the other side and maybe get some one-on-ones because they’re going to have to slide protection a little bit or chip with the back on Za’Darius, but this guy has really cashed in on this opportunity and he’s made Green Bay’s front office look smart. I understand why Washington didn’t pay top money for him because he wasn’t getting 12 sacks a season with the Redskins. You have to look at what his past production was and what you evaluate his future production will be. For some reason Green Bay said, ‘If we get both of these guys here, they both can get upward of 10 sacks,’ and that’s what they have done.”