■ Blackhawks are showing promise at the season’s midpoint, including a strong rookie class. Jimmy Greenfield lays out the positives and negatives as the Hawks push for the playoffs.
Plenty of positives, negatives as Hawks push for the playoffs
For a little more than a week, the Blackhawks can put the ups and downs of a tumultuous first 51 games on hold.
Players and coaches already began treks all over the world for some rest and relaxation before reconvening in Arizona to restart the season Saturday against the Coyotes.
It has been a struggle, but the Hawks are in decent shape to make a playoff run. Then again, they’re one losing streak away from being sellers at the Feb. 24 trade deadline.
What has gone right and what has gone wrong? Here are the four biggest positives and negatives from the Hawks season at the All-Star break.
The positives
1. Dominik Kubalik, Kirby Dach and Adam Boqvist lead a promising rookie class.
Just how strong this group will end up is unclear, but Kubalik is on pace for more than 30 goals, and Dach and Boqvist are holding their own as teenagers in the NHL.
Kubalik is 24, so he’s graded on a curve, but he has been a revelation, especially when the light went on over the last month with 13 goals in his last 16 games.
Dach and Boqvist have shown more than glimpses of their promise, which is typical for teens who enter the NHL a little before they probably should have.
Meanwhile, the jury is still out on Alex Nylander, who doesn’t appear to be a core player after the Hawks acquired him from the Sabres for Henri Jokiharju. But there’s still time for Nylander to develop into a top-six forward, and the Hawks have made clear they intend to give him plenty of it.
2. Robin Lehner has been a game changer.
If the Hawks don’t end up making the playoffs, coach Jeremy Colliton might regret not anointing Lehner as the No. 1 goalie sooner. Lehner has had a few poor games but overall has been consistently great and should get the bulk of starts over Corey Crawford the rest of the way.
Crawford hasn’t played poorly but had a miserable December, and his .910 save percentage is well behind Lehner’s .922, which is one of the best in the league. The big question is whether the Hawks can re-sign Lehner, who is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after the season. 3. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are as good as ever.
Toews started slowly but has averaged more than a point per game since the start of November.
Kane is on pace for another 100-point season despite having a ton of linemates.
4. The Blackhawks are 9 points ahead of last season’s pace.
The Hawks are on the outside looking in at the playoffs, as they were at this point last season, but they’re in much better shape.
The 2018-19 Hawks were 18-24-9 (45 points) at the break and seven points out of a playoff spot while trailing six teams. This team is 24-21-6 (51 points) and three points out while trailing only two teams.
Considering Calvin de Haan and Brent Seabrook suffered season-ending injuries, Andrew Shaw has been out since the end of November with a concussion and the Hawks have lost Duncan Keith, Connor Murphy, Dylan Strome and Drake Caggiula for lengthy periods, it’s remarkable they’re in position for a postseason run.
The negatives
1. The power play has been ineffective.
The Hawks’ turnaround last season began when Erik Gustafsson joined the power play, fueling a two-month stretch as the best team in the league with a man advantage.
This season the Hawks have been on a never-ending search to make things click. They retained Gustafsson in the offseason largely because they hoped he would again quarterback the top power-play unit and produce another 60-point season.
But he hasn’t come close to being the same player, and Jeremy Colliton still is searching for an effective top unit. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Alex DeBrincat are still there, now joined by Kirby Dach and Adam Boqvist.
But that unit hasn’t been any better, and the Hawks have the fifth-worst power play (24-for-154) in the league. The four worst teams? The Ducks, Red Wings, Devils and Senators, none of whom has a chance to make the playoffs. 2. Alex DeBrincat is in the middle of a disappointing season.
Singling out DeBrincat is a bit unfair because he might be more unlucky than underperforming. He is on pace for the most shots on goal of his three-season career, and his effort never has been questioned.
The fact is, however, DeBrincat has 12 goals and is on pace to finish with 19, which would be a precipitous drop from last season’s 41. Most concerning is that DeBrincat has only four even-strength goals despite already having played more minutes on a line with Patrick Kane at even strength than he did all of last season.
But unlike Erik Gustafsson, whose career year seemed like an aberration, DeBrincat’s down year seems to be an outlier. His 8.4% shot percentage is far below the 17.2% he posted over his first two seasons, so chances are he will correct to the mean next season.
The Hawks — and DeBrincat — would sure like to see it corrected for the final two months of this season.
3. The Blackhawks have been mediocre at the United Center.
The Hawks are one of six teams with a points percentage of .500 or below at home, and it should come as no surprise that none of the six holds a playoff spot.
Jeremy Colliton has tried to cajole his team into playing the kind of simpler game that has worked a little better on the road (12-9-3).
Even during their current 11-5 stretch, the Hawks are just 4-4 at home. If they can continue to win at an .875 clip away from the United Center, then, sure, they don’t need to worry about the home record. But that’s not likely to happen.
4. The Blackhawks have failed to play complete games too many times.
The Hawks gave away too many games over the first three months by either not being ready at the start, disappearing in the second period or not closing out games.
Even in recent wins over the Red Wings and Senators, the Hawks trailed 2-0 after the first period before figuring things out. They blew 3-0 leads to the Bruins and Blues and had to hang on to beat the Flames 5-3 on New Year’s Eve despite scoring the first four goals.
With contenders needing to focus on picking up every available point after the break, falling asleep during any lengthy stretch of a game will be difficult to overcome.