Oscar’s best picture: Anyone’s guess
Nine films are nominated, and there are plenty of reasons any of them can win
When the dust settled on the morning of Oscar nominations, the biggest surprise might have been that there were no real surprises in the best picture race. All nine films were also PGAnominated.
In prior years, it was believed no film could win best picture without an editing nom, but “Birdman” most recently disproved that theory. And the past two winners, “Green Book” and “The Shape of Water,” destroyed the notion that a film needed a SAG ensemble nomination to win the top Oscar.
So here’s a breakdown of what each film has on its side, and what it may need to overcome to win.
“1917”: The last film to screen, “1917” burst onto the scene with ecstatic critical response and a big opening weekend, displacing “The Rise of Skywalker.” An old-fashioned war film with its own point of view, it wowed with impressive technical achievement, filmed in real time as if in one take. A best picture and director win from the Golden Globes and 10 Oscar noms had to ease the sting of being shut out of SAG nominations. And it landed the PGA award, a strong indicator of the Oscars.
Obstacles: Heralded war films have missed out on the top prize as of late: See 2017’s “Dunkirk” and 2016’s “Hacksaw Ridge.”
“Ford v Ferrari”: A solid, feel-good crowd-pleaser, you don’t have to care about car racing to get invested in the true story of the team of Americans assembled to beat Ferrari in the Le Mans race. Matt Damon and Christian Bale head a great cast, the film is a bona fide box-office hit and it’s the film nobody hates.
Obstacles: With four Oscar nominations, it has the fewest of any best picture nominees.
“The Irishman”: Martin Scorsese’s gangster epic walked away with 10 Oscar nominations, including noms in all the key categories. Talk about the 3½hour running time quickly faded as critics praised all aspects of the story and Netflix released figures indicating the film was the fourth most watched Netflix film of 2019.
Obstacles: Are voters ready to recognize a Netflix film for best picture? “Roma” couldn’t pull it off last year — though “Irishman” is probably much more accessible.
“Jojo Rabbit”: For a dark comedy centered on a young Hitler Youth and a wacky (imaginary) Adolf Hitler to walk away with six nominations is, in itself, an achievement. Taika Waititi wrote, directed, co-produced and even stars as Hitler in the subversive dark comedy. It won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto film festival, the same prize nabbed by last year’s best picture winner, “Green Book.” SAG noms for Scarlett Johansson and the ensemble, along with DGA and WGA noms show strong guild support across the board.
Obstacles: Waititi missed out on a director nom and at $30 million box office worldwide, it has the lowest gross of the nominees, sans the Netflix films.
“Joker”: The dark origin story of perhaps the greatest comic-book villain, “Joker” kicked off by winning the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and from there has racked up accolades (it has 11 noms, more than any other film) and box office. Director/cowriter Todd Phillips (a dual nominee) is unflinching in his portrait of an ordinary man’s descent, buoyed by a fantastic performance from Joaquin Phoenix.
Obstacles: Though not really a superhero film, it hails from the DC Universe, and no film adapted from the comic world has ever won best picture.
“Little Women”: Though ignored in precursor races — the film was shut out of SAG completely, and only the score and star Saoirse Ronan were recognized by the Golden Globes — Greta Gerwig’s adaptation of the Louisa May Alcott classic about four sisters has rallied nicely, with five BAFTA and now six Oscar noms. The film has also proved to be a hit with audiences, having made more than $100 million worldwide since its Christmas Day release.
Obstacles: The story has been told on film before, most recently a 1994 adaptation that earned three Oscar noms.
“Marriage Story”: Noah Baumbach’s heartbreaking take on a divorcing couple has hit all the major precursors, earning best picture noms from BAFTA, Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice. It landed six Oscar noms, three of those for its stars. Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson earned some of the best reviews of their careers as battling parents who love their son, while Laura Dern has been snapping up awards left and right as a savvy divorce lawyer.
Obstacles: Though neither is a deal-breaker, the combined Netflix bias and lack of a director nom could be tough.
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”: Quentin Tarantino’s latest walked away with 10 nominations. Both loving homage and incisive study of a golden age of Hollywood, the movie filled with tension and laughter and career-best performances from Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt. The film has grossed over $372 million and was named best picture by both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice awards.
Obstacles: The lack of an editing nomination traditionally spells trouble — still, “1917” didn’t land one either and “Birdman” won without a nom in 2015.
“Parasite”: Yes, it’s a foreign film, but it’s also one of the most-talked-about and wholly original films of the year. The South Korean thriller, centering on a poor family infiltrating their wealthy employers, landed six nominations including directing, screenplay and, significantly, editing. There are no individual acting nominations, but its historical win in the SAG ensemble category shows the support from actors is there — it’s only the second foreign film after “Life Is Beautiful” to even land a nomination in that category.
Obstacles: No foreignlanguage film has ever won best picture. Some will point to “Roma” losing last year as proof no film can, while others will say that pic helped pave the way for a “Parasite” win.