Leverage is the name of the game
As long as there’s no deal, Robinson seems likely to gain more
Leverage is the name of the game in contract negotiations, and the deeper this season goes the more Chicago Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson will have as he seeks a multiyear extension that will make him one of the highest-paid wide receivers in the league.
The risk for Robinson, of course, is remaining healthy and productive enough to be paid commensurate to the top players at his position. The former is most significant because as long as Robinson is on the field he’s the preferred target of quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
Where this thing is headed is anyone’s guess. Chairman George McCaskey told WGN-AM 720 on Friday morning that “we’re very optimistic” after getting an update on the situation from team President Ted Phillips.
Clearly there is a large divide between the sides. Otherwise, Robinson — or someone acting on his behalf — wouldn’t have spent the time needed to scrub all mentions to the Bears in his social media accounts. Twitter and Instagram are platforms for Robinson to represent his brand, goals and beliefs, and that was a manner for him to express his increasing level of frustration.
In gearing up for Sunday’s Week 2 meeting with the New York Giants at Soldier Field, Robinson has pledged to compartmentalize his emotions and focus on the preparation, attention to detail and performance needed to remain the most consistent member of a rebuilding offense. It’s no stretch to suggest that protracted contract negotiations can create a tangled web for a player, but if anyone is equipped to perform the mental limbo required to focus on the job while knowing the pay day will eventually come, from the Bears or a future employer, it’s Robinson.
Robinson has the support of his teammates and has conducted what all involved described as positive conversations with coach Matt Nagy about the situation. That will help Robinson remain on task, but ultimately he is looking for the team to show how much it loves him, not only tell.
The Bears’ willingness to pay Robinson in line with the Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen, who recently signed a fouryear extension averaging $20 million per season, remains to be seen. If they were in the same neighborhood with an offer, a deal probably would have been struck by now. Robinson is one year younger than Allen, and their career statistics are very similar.
The marketplace — and leverage — are the two greatest factors that drive negotiations. Friday was pay day for the Rams’ Robert Woods. At the start of the final year of his rookie contract, he reportedly received a four-year, $65 million contract with $32 million guaranteed. The Detroit Lions’ Kenny Golladay and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Chris Godwin could be paid soon. No matter how you stack Robinson against those players, his camp and the team will study new contracts closely.
The Bears historically have sought a bit of a discount when extending players with one year remaining on their contracts. The argument is that the team is inheriting risk the player otherwise would have during that season. It makes business sense to reward players early and lock them in sooner rather than later, but it’s not always that simple. Allen was positioned similarly entering a contract year before he was paid this month, so it’s not as if the Chargers walked away with a discount. The more games Robinson plays this season without an extension, the more leverage inches toward him. A baseline sometimes used in negotiations for players in line for the franchise tag is that number projected out over two seasons. The 2020 tag number for wide receivers was $17.865 million. In a normal year, without the sweeping impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, it would have climbed north of $18 million in 2021. With the salary cap expected to dip, potentially as low as $175 million, franchise tag numbers will drop next year. For the purpose of discussion, let’s consider the math in a normal situation. If the wide receiver tag number in 2021 was $18 million, the 2022 tag number for Robinson would be $21.6 million — a 120% increase over the first tag. Add those and it’s $39.6 million, meaning an annual average for a new contract could be in the neighborhood of $19.8 million. That’s about where Allen’s annual average landed.
But we’re not in a normal year, which means the tag potentially could be stronger leverage for the Bears. Of course, Robinson might react adversely to that. He already has made it clear to the Bears: If they aren’t going to pay him, they should trade him.
Whether the Bears would use the franchise tag to secure Robinson in March is a question for six months down the road — if it gets to that. This isn’t something general manager Ryan Pace is going to dwell on publicly. Way too much can occur between now and then.
Pace has used the franchise tag once: for wide receiver Alshon Jeffery in 2016. And if the Bears have a history of letting players from any one position exit via free agency, it’s at receiver. A year later, Jeffery departed for the Eagles. In 2008, the Bears hoped to keep wide receiver Bernard Berrian and linebacker Lance Briggs .
Briggs explored the market but couldn’t find the offer he wanted, allowing the Bears to retain him at their price and make a spirited run at Berrian. He ultimately chose a six-year, $42 million contract with the Vikings. In retrospect, the Bears were better off not paying that kind of money for a one-dimensional receiver, although the production the offense got from Devin Hester, Rashied Davis and Brandon Llloyd the next season made the position a weak spot.
Jeffery’s health complicated the situation. He played in only nine games in 2015, catching 54 passes for 807 yards and four touchdowns as hamstring and calf injuries plagued him and made the club hesitant to reward him with the kind of multiyear contract he sought. A four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs in 2016 limited his production to 52 catches for 821 yards and two touchdowns, and the sides couldn’t get close to a deal, leading him to sign a oneyear, prove-it deal with the Eagles that he turned into a four-year, $52 million contract a year later. Injuries have forced him out of 10 games since the start of the 2018 season, including the Eagles’ opener last week.
Jeffery left the Bears ranked third on the team’s all-time receiving list with 4,549 yards, and you’re hard-pressed to name a better draft pick at the position in franchise history. One key reason the Bears felt comfortable letting him exit was the belief that 2015 first-round pick Kevin White would ascend. That didn’t happen, although Pace has been better with picks at the position recently — Anthony Miller looks ready to perform on a consistent basis in Year 3 and rookie Darnell Mooney adds a speed dimension that was lacking.
Crazier things have happened than the Bears allowing Robinson to exit via free agency or — crazier — trading him. But such a move would create a gaping hole at a position group that has improved. The Bears certainly could feel good about using high draft picks to fortify the offensive line, defensive line, linebacker — or quarterback — with Robinson in place.
James Bradberry, 6-foot-1, 212 pounds, is in his first season with the Giants after signing a three-year, $43 million contract in free agency that included $31.9 million guaranteed. The 27-yearold spent his first four seasons with the Panthers, who drafted him in Round 2 in 2016 out of Samford, starting 60 games and making eight interceptions. Bradberry’s contract, which averages $14.5 million, ranks him sixth at his position. It shows the value players can have when they reach free agency “They paid him as a top guy because he had man coverage skills on the open market,” the scout said. “That’s where he really cashed in. What does everyone want to do right now in the NFL? They want to play man coverage and take away quick games and RPOs and Joe Judge with the Giants, he wants to be a heavy man-coverage team. That’s why they went out and got Bradberry. He’s got a really smooth pedal and he plays with really good technique. I would describe him as more of a technician than a playmaker. He keeps his shoulders square, he does a nice job of keeping the ball in front of him and he has a really good transition to break on the football. But if you’re asking me to make a list of the top 10 of cornerbacks with coverage traits right now, he’s still not on that list.
“He’s a good football player. He hit the market at the right time, and his skills matched what people wanted on the market right now. Judge had to look at his roster and say, ‘We don’t have corners that can play man coverage,’ when he got there and the first-round pick from last year (cornerback DeAndre Baker), he’s gone now. That doesn’t help. They needed someone with man traits because I would imagine Joe Judge is going to be a lot like (Lions coach) Matt Patricia and try to do everything that they succeeded with in New England, where they play a ton of man coverage. They’re going to run exactly what Bill (Belichick) runs with the Patriots, and the problem is New York does not have those guys. I think they’re poor defensively. Bradberry is a good player, and he can play some quarters coverage too. He’s the No. 1 guy. When they go man coverage, the matchup you want to see is Bradberry versus Allen Robinson.”