Races I’ll be watching Tuesday night, and what I expect to see
“I don’t know” is the most common response you’ll hear if you ask political journalists who they think is going to win a close race.
Such honesty and modesty! Of course they don’t know. Election results can confound expectations because of any number of factors, fromweather to latebreaking news events to higherthan-expected turnout among certain demographic groups to inaccurate or inadequate polling.
Sports journalists don’t know which teams are going to win either. Entertainment journalists don’t knowwhich artists are going to take home Oscars, Grammys, Emmys and so on. But their lack of clairvoyance never seems to stop them frommaking predictions, just as general uncertainty about the future doesn’t grind the gambling and investment economies to a halt.
I’ve never been shy about offering predictions as away to frame thinking about the future, but I’ve come to prefer presenting them as best guesses. This seems to limit the temptation certain readers have for taunting me when I’m wrong, which, sadly, I have been, as Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the candidate I predicted in Januarywould win the presidency, would tell you.
That said, here, framed in humility and presented for amusement purposes only, are the races I’ll bewatching Tuesday night and the results I expect (not necessarily those Iwant):
Graduated income-tax amendment.
The ballot measure to amend the Illinois Constitution to eliminate the requirement that all income be taxed at a single rate has been the subject of heavyTV advertising on both sides. To pass, the referendum must get “yes” votes fromeither amajority of all those who cast ballots in the election or more than 60% of those who choose to vote on the question. It’s a high threshold.
Best guess: Even though the idea has polled verywell in Illinois, it feels to me as though opponents have successfully turned the question into “Do you trust those schnooks in Springfield with greater latitude in monkeying with tax rates?” The referendum goes down to defeat.
U.S. Senate in Illinois. Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin is not facing a particularly strong field in his bid for a fifth term in Washington, but philanthropic entrepreneurWillieWilson of the WillieWilson Party has a stronger following than most third-party or independent candidates (nearly 11% in each of the last two Chicago mayoral contests ) and will eat into Durbin’s typically solid support among African American voters.
Best guess: Durbin wins, but with slightly under 50% of the vote.
Cook County state’s attorney.
First-term Democratic incumbent Kim Foxxwould probably be sailing to reelectionwere it not for howher office abruptly dismissed all charges against TV actor Jussie Smollett for allegedly filing a false police report, and for howshe has refused ever since to provide a coherent explanation for that decision. Republican challenger Pat O’Brien, a former prosecutor and judge, has referred to Foxx as a “crime lover” for her reform-minded approach to incarceration in this notably nasty campaign, and his candidacy promises a return to a tougher form of justice.
Best guess: It’s never smart to bet against a Democrat in Cook County, particularly an incumbent. But O’Brien, whose TV ads refer to him as a lifelong Democrat, squeaks out a win.
Retention of Cook County Judge Michael Toomin.
Local judicial retention races seldom get much attention, but the effort to oust Toomin led by Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, chair of the Cook County Democratic Party, has put this one in the headlines. Party officials and other foes claim to be dissatisfied with Toomin’s oversight of the juvenile court system. But there’s little evidence of this dissatisfaction in the news archives predating Toomin’s 2019 decision to appoint special prosecutorDanWebb to reinvestigate the Smollett case. Webb’s report was highly critical of Foxx, Preckwinkle’s former chief of staff.
Best guess: Voters, persuaded in part by strong editorial support for Toomin in the Tribune and the Sun-Times aswell as endorsements fromthe Chicago Bar Association, the Chicago Council of Lawyers and the Cook County Bar Association, will reject the retaliatory effort of Team Toni to punish a judge for doing his job. Toomin stays.
Retention of SupremeCourt Justice Thomas Kilbride.
Kilbride, a Democrat, is trying to hang on to his seat in a Republican-leaning Downstate district, and he’s facing awell-funded “vote no” campaign linking him to controversial Democratic House Speaker MichaelMadigan, his political sponsor. The Democrats’ 4-3 control of the state’s high court is at stake, and Kilbride needs 60% support fromvoters in order to prevail.
Best guess: Kilbride goes.
Control of theU.S. Senate.
I
have lefty friends who tell me that, if they had to choose between Democrats winning the Senate or Democrats winning the WhiteHouse, they’d take the Senate. I disagree, but it’s true that without control of the Senate, a presidency is hamstrung. Democrats will have to win a net gain of four seats to have a majority going forward (they currently have 47 seats, counting the two independents who caucus with them). Friday, the polling analytics site FiveThirtyEight gave them a 76% chance of doing so, factoring in the chance that the next vice president will be the 51st vote in case of ties.
Best guess: A bluewave vindicates FiveThirtyEight. Democrats prevail.
Lighting could strike twice. The preelection polls in key battleground states could be off by just enough to give a second Electoral College victory to President Donald Trump. A surge of energy fromhis rabid base combined with GOP voter-suppression efforts and friendly conservative judges willing to toss out ballots thatwere mailed before ElectionDay but didn’t arrive until after the polls closed could deal us another surprise result. But the political savants tell us the fundamentals and circumstances are quite different than theywere in 2016 and that Democratic challenger Joe Biden is very likely to win.
Best guess: Biden wins comfortably.
But, again, of course, I don’t know. Maybe you think you do. I’ve posted the link to a survey on these races at chicagotribune.com/zorn, and you can check back there for results.
As always, please, nowagering!
President. Re:Tweets
The winner of thisweek’s reader poll to select the funniest tweetwas, “Standing in line to vote, somebody pulls up and asks, ‘Howlong have you beenwaiting?’ Some guy yells back, ‘Four years!,’” a tweet that appeared in so many forms fromso many people in recent days that Iwas unable to determine who first came up with it.
The poll appears at chicago tribune.com/zorn where you can read all the finalists. For an early alert when each new poll is posted, sign up for the Change of Subject email newsletter at chicagotribune.com/newsletters.