Seventh would be heaven in 2020
Despite inconsistent performance, playoff berth still possible
We’ve given it a name: “Seventh-seed seduction.”
Take that to the cable networks for a pitch. It’s a dramafilled story about a seemingly directionless football team that suddenly shows signs of hope, leaving the outsideworld confused on who they really are and what to believe. Settle in.
Aweek ago the rage across the Chicago areawas not only palpable, itwas white-hot. The Bearswere in free fall, more than 50 days removed from their last victory and still unable to activate their parachute. They had lost six games in a row, including three consecutive division defeats that brought differing but still very intense levels of humiliation.
Nov. 16: The offensewent without a touchdown on the “MondayNight Football” stage for the second time this season and dropped a very winnable home game 19-13 to a visiting Vikings team that didn’t play all thatwell.
Nov. 29: Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes on his first five possessions. Mitch Trubisky committed three turnovers. And the Bears fell behind by 31 points early in the second half on theway to an embarrassing 41-25 loss to the rival Packers.
Dec. 6: Ahead 30-20 with less than five minutes to play, the Bears did the unthinkable: They gagged away a gimme victory to a last-place Lions team that had fired its general manager and head coach the previousweekend. The Bears defense gave up a seven-play, 96-yard touchdown drive with little resistance and the offense
followed with an astonishing fumble inside their own 10 yard line. That turnover giftwrapped the game-winning score. Lions 34, Bears 30.
Yikes. All of it.
The screams for change amplified. The Bears somehowagain had managed to wander into quicksand.
The team’s failureswere undeniable and the direction of the franchise seemed obvious to anyone who had a strong enough stomach to be honest with themselves. And then?
Well, the Bears finally regrouped Sunday with a 36-7 win over the Texans. And not just a win, a resounding, blowout win. A complete, three-phase, in-total-command trouncing of their visitors fromHouston. Thirty first-half points from the offense. Seven sacks, a safety and a fumble produced fromthe defense.
A special teams takeaway and another perfect afternoon for kicker Cairo Santos.
Man, that looked different. It looked like a complete team victory. What if …
Just like that, enthusiasm returned to the Bears locker room.
On the same afternoon, the Vikings lost to the Buccaneers and fell to 6-7. OnNBC’s “SundayNight Football,” touch-screen numbers guru SteveKornacki rolled up his sleeves andwaved his arms and, in his alluring, caffeinated manner, told the footballworld that the Bears chances of making the 2020 playoffs had increased from 6% to 14%.
Still slim odds, sure. But growing, right? Especially with theVikings as the next opponent. And then aWeek 16 trip to Jacksonville, Fla., to face a Jaguars team that haswon once all year— on Sept. 13.
Suddenly, the impressive nature of the Bears’ win over the Texans linked up with a friendly December schedule, and the path to 8-7 and a possible playoffs-on-theline game against the Packers inWeek 17 appeared.
Imagine whatKornacki’s hyperactivity will be if the Bears upset the Vikings on Sunday in Minneapolis. And imagine the way those “in the hunt” percentages will increase with another win over the Jaguars. Just imagine …
Vrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!
That’s the familiar sound of the record scraping across the needle, then coming to a complete stop. That’s the call for reality to again enter this discussion. That’s the voice of reason requesting to bring nuance to all this reverie.
That’s the whisper that’swarning everyone: “Don’t fall for the seventh-seed seduction.”
The Bears will board their chartered flights to Minneapolis on Saturday with a 6-7 record, still on theNo. 9 line of theNFC standings. Over the last two seasons, they’ve lost more often than they’vewon.
They also have given realists enough evidence to forecast at least one more stumble over the final threeweeks of this season, whichwould mean another year without a winning record and, very likely, another January playoff party that proceeds without the Bears on the guest list.
As convincing as Sunday’s dismantling of DeshaunWatson and the Texanswas—
really good teams take apart inferior opponents just like that!— the triumph also left even the most devoted Bears fans feeling conflicted. Confused. Kind of empty.
Fool’s gold, they called it. A “dead cat bounce.” Some labeled it “a sugar-high victory,” temporarily stimulating and creating somewelcome manic energy but certain to be followed by a crash.
So that brings us to the important bigpicture interpretation of all that happened lastweekend for the Bears and all that’s ahead in the next 2 1⁄2weeks. So much of this circles back to what the chief decisionmakers insideHalasHall identify as meaningful achievement.
In the short term, the Bears players and coaches have no choice but to retain a micro-focus. Their dreams of winning the NFCNorth already have disintegrated. (Congratulations again, Packers.)
Thus, the Bears will readily take their place in line for a potential consolation prize. There’s no other choice but to eye thatNo. 7 seed for the NFC playoffs and attempt to snatch it.
Still, the aspirations of this team, of this franchise ultimately should be about pursuing and winning championships— the division, the conference, perhaps one day another one of those shiny silver Lombardi Trophies to pair with that lonely one in the HalasHall lobby that the organization collected 35 years ago.
That’s where the challenge lies for Chairman GeorgeMcCaskey as he attempts to make sense of this topsy-turvy season, as he interprets his team’s 5-1 start, six-game losing streak and then whatever finishing chapter the Bears write over the final three games.
McCaskey must ask himself what he deems as meaningful achievement and be guided by his answer.
Viewing these Bears through a suddenly outdated 2019 lens— those days of yore when only six teams from each conference made the playoffs— this seasonwould be firmly inked in as an undeniable disappointment. Another one.
Through the 2019 lens, the Bearswould be two games behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the final NFC wild-card spot with only three games remaining. Itwould be a fait accompli that thiswould become the 12th time in 14 seasons that the Bears have missed the playoffs. And no one in his right mindwould define that as acceptable or enjoyable or successful.
Yet back inMarch, NFL owners approved playoff expansion. Seven teams from each conference will nowplay in the postseason; that’s 44% of the league.
Six do-or-die games on wild-cardweekend on Jan. 9 and 10. A windfall of extra TV revenue. More playoff fun.
The Bears and their fanswould be fools to notwant to be a part of that.
Still, even if these playoff hopes stay alive, even ifKornacki finds himself in Week 17 hyperventilating about a Bears revival and their windowof opportunity to slip from“in the hunt” over into the wildcard column, there should be detailed discussions in Chicago— and most important, insideHalasHall— about what truly qualifies as success.
Does sneaking in the back door of an expanded playoff party qualify as a meaningful achievement?
It’s easy to assert that the Bears’ inability to sustain any significant success in the 28 years since MikeDitkawas fired is either rooted in the organization’s inability to recognize mediocrity or its failure or unwillingness to change anything once that mediocrity has been identified.
Are you hearing that whisper again? The intoxication of Sunday’s thrashing of the Texanswas real. Itwaswelcome. It was refreshing. Itwas long overdue. That performance looked every bit like it came fromthat adrenalizing 2018 championship season. It offered an invitation for outsiders to dream big again.
But it also should be remembered that a glass-half-full versus glass-half-empty debate only begins when the glass being looked at is only 50% filled. Literally halffull. Or half-empty.
A better goal for the Bears, of course, would be to eventually have a glass that’s very clearly filled 75-80% and cut out all the other interpretive guesswork.
Until the Bears can make that happen, they remain on a circular path, chasing excellence while alwayswinding up right back in a dizzying state of mediocrity.
And still, that seventh seed is calling, isn’t it?