A fearless look ahead after a dreadful year
The majority, or in some cases plurality, of more than 870 respondents to my annual predict-thenews survey are in agreement with me that in 2021 ...
■ President Donald Trump will not attend the inaugural ceremony for his successor, Joe Biden.
■ Trump will announce his candidacy for president in 2024 on or before InaugurationDay.
■ In his first 100 days, President Biden will reenter the Paris Climate Agreement.
■ In his first 100 days, Biden will end theNational Emergency declaration that allows the diversion of federal defense money to build theU.S. andMexico border wall.
■ In his first 100 days, Biden will reach his stated goal of 100 million COVID-19 vaccinations.
■ In his first 100 days, Biden will reenter the IranNuclear Deal.
■ TheCOVID-19 death toll in the United States will not ultimately exceed 700,000, more than double what it is today.
■ TheU.S. Supreme Court will not overturn the Affordable Care Act.
■ Neither Trump’s children nor Hunter Biden will be indicted.
■ Gov. J.B. Pritzker and entrepreneurWillieWilson will announce runs for governor in 2022. State. Sen. Jim Oberweis of Sugar Grove, Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts and hedge fund billionaireKen Griffin are among those whowon’t be running.
■ Rep. MichaelMadigan will not be reelected as speaker of the IllinoisHouse of Representatives.
■ R&B singer R. Kelly will be convicted or will plead guilty to the charges facing him.
■ Ald. Edward Burke, 14th— accused of racketeering, bribery and extortion conspiracy— and Kyle Rittenhouse— charged in the shooting deaths of two protesters inKenosha, Wisconsin— will still be awaiting trial at year’s end.
■ TV actor Jussie Smollett will be convicted or will plead guilty to the charges facing him.
■ A TigerWoods-designed championship golf course on the south lakefront will remain just a fantasy.
■ FormerNewYork City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be indicted (barring a presidential pardon).
■ TheUniversity of Alabama will win the college football championship, the Kansas City Chiefs will win the Super Bowl and the White Sox willmake the postseason.
Yes, I know, 2020 proved beyond any doubt that the fog of the future is impenetrable and that the news tends to make fools of those who presume to peer through it. Butmaking predictions is just anotherway of starting a conversation about what lies ahead and testing our instincts and insights against reality. Whetherwe commit our best guesses to paper or not, we’re all wondering and speculating about what fate has in store for us.
Survey respondents added these predictions with which I disagree:
■ Trump will pardon himself and at least one of his children before leaving office.
■ Trump will be indicted at either the state or federal level.
■ The GeorgiaU.S. Senate runoff elections Jan. 5 will result in a split verdict, with one Democrat and one Republican winning. I’m predicting Republicans will win both races.
■ Even at the end of 2021, a majority of Republican voters will still be telling pollsters they believe the presidential electionwas stolen fromTrump.
■ The national unemployment rate in December will be between 5% and 10%. My optimistic guess is that the economy will roar back and the rate will be lower than 5%.
■ Chicago will return to indoor dining without restrictions related toCOVID-19 by Aug. 1. Here my optimism fails me.
■ Illinois lawmakers will hike the state income tax rate. More than 80% of respondents think this will happen, but I don’t think they’ll have the courage.
■ The number of homicides in Chicago will be roughly what it was in 2020— nearly 770. My hope andmy guess is it will significantly decrease.
David Brown will still be the superintendent of the Chicago Police Department a year from now.
Construction will begin on the Obama Presidential Center in Jackson Park.
And I’m making these predictions with which most readers disagree:
In its final gasps, Trump’s Justice Department will appoint special counsels to investigate election fraud andHunter Biden. ■ Trump will hold an inauguration ceremony for his imaginary second term.
Biden will award the PresidentialMedal of Freedom to Col. Alexander Vindman and/or others who lost their jobs after testifying against Trump in the impeachment hearings. I admit this is more of a wish than a prediction— Biden is striking too many conciliatory notes to inspire confidence that he’ll go out of hisway to poke fingers in Trump’s eye.
TheU.S. Supreme Court will rule that people living in this country illegally should be included in the census count and will issue a landmark decision dramatically curtailing abortion rights.
U.S. attorneys will indict SpeakerMadigan. Smart money says never to bet against the wily Springfield veteran, but even smarter money says never to bet against the feds. Madigan is plainly in their sights.
Former state Rep. Jeanne Ives of Wheaton will once again run for governor. IllinoisU.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger and State Rep.
Darren Bailey ofXenia also will announce bids. If Iwere hedging my bets I’d include the possibility that Kinzinger will mount a 2022 run for the seat nowheld by IllinoisU.S. Sen Tammy Duckworth. ■ Construction will begin on a Chicago casino.
■ Either this season or next, the Bears will make the NFL playoffs.
Complete survey results are posted to chicagotribune.com/ zorn.
Re: Tweets
The winner of thisweek’s reader poll to select the funniest tweetwas, “Whenever I unsubscribe and it asks me why, I choose ‘other’ and put ‘you know what you did,’” by@StillNotCool2.
The poll appears at chicago tribune.com/zorn, where you can read all the finalists and the justposted list ofmy top 40 tweets of 2020. For an early alert when each new poll is posted, sign up for the Change of Subject email newsletter at chicagotribune. com/newsletters.