The only voice that matters
Will Sunday’s result factor intoMcCaskey’s thinking when it comes to future for Nagy and Pace?
Months of speculation and uncertainty regarding the future of the Chicago Bears will be answered soon when the one voice that matters above all else is heard.
Chairman George McCaskey hasn’t spoken publicly since Sept. 10, the day this most unusual NFL season kicked off with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs rolling over theHouston Texans.
The league, against the odds, hasn’t missed a game during theCOVID-19 pandemic, and the Bears enter Sunday’sWeek 17 meeting with the Green Bay Packers playing for a berth in the postseason. A Bears victory or awin by the Los Angeles Rams— without quarterback Jared Goff (right thumb surgery) and wide receiver CooperKupp (COVID-19 test)— over the Arizona Cardinals, and the Bears will be preparing for a wild-card playoff game nextweek.
Eitherway, McCaskey will be heard fromsoon enough, and only he knows what direction the franchise will take. Conjecture and theories will giveway to his defined vision for 2021, andwe will learn the status of general manager Ryan Pace and coachMattNagy.
The Bears traditionally havewaited until a season is complete to survey the entire landscape, a pragmatic approach thatwas challenged by an unsettled fan base during a six-game losing streak that spanned almost two months and nearly torpedoed the season. The Bears (8-7) have rallied with three consecutive wins to make the season finale meaningful, something that seemed most unlikely fiveweeks ago when the final seconds ticked off a 41-26 Packers victory at Lambeau Field thatwasn’t as close as the score.
Closing against the rival Packers, who have dominated the Bears for nearly three decades in the combined Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre eras, adds a wrinkle to the situation. McCaskey makes no secret of the weight he puts on the series. An upset of the Packerswould benefit everyone at HalasHall. The Bearswould be unlikely to fire anyone at the highest levels coming off a 9-7 season. A lopsided loss, especially if combined with a Cardinals win, could change the tenor of discussions.
I’m not one for hanging on everyword someone said nearly four months ago because circumstances change and opinions can change significantly in that span, especially over the peaks and valleys of an NFL season. But considering that’s the last timeMcCaskey spoke publicly, it’s at least worth reviewing his comments.
“We’re all evaluated on a regular basis,” McCaskey said. “That’s true ofmy performance and it’s true of Ryan’s performance. And he knows that. I’ve been impressed with his andMatt’s leadership during these chaotic, challenging times. They’ve come upwith a good plan, they’re executing itwell. And I’ve got to give the players a lot of credit too. We’re asking a lot of them, in terms of personal discipline and conduct away fromthe facility. It’s been very encouraging to see so far.”
In that regard, Pace andNagy have continued to excel as the Bears, through meticulous planning and responsible behavior by players and staff and perhaps a bit of
luck, have not faced nearly as many disruptions and roster hurdles due to the coronavirus as many other teams. At some level, that will factor in considerations.
When the Bears hiredNagy on Jan. 8, 2018, they didn’t announce the length of his contract. A little more than aweek earlier, before Pace launched the search to replace coach John Fox, the Bears awarded Pace a two-year contract extension that ran through 2021.
Later, we learned the duration ofNagy’s contract is five years, carrying through 2022. One source said it’s believed the Bears adjusted Pace’s deal to run concurrently withNagy’s, but it’s unknown whether that happened.
That should not be viewed as a big deal in the grand scheme. When you consider the financial burden created by an overhaul, paying off one or two years on aGM’s contract isn’t an obstacle to change. Coaches are paid much more thanGMs.
The Bears either will finish with a winning record for the second time in three seasons or have consecutive .500 seasons, considerably ahead of where the organizationwas in Pace’s first three seasons but short of the expectations created by the 12-4 breakthrough in 2018.
“With that particular position, it’s one of leadership primarily,” McCaskey said in September when asked about evaluating Pace entering Year 6. “He’s in charge of the entire football operation. So that’s a factor. Winning, of course, is part of the assessment. And then his personnel, his supervision of the personnel department, scouting department. Things of that nature.”
Nagy appears to be in good shape to return for a fourth season, something that was much less certain a month ago. The offense, after a slump that lasted more than 1½ seasons, has come to life, and while Nagywas ripe for criticism as the slog continued, he also deserves credit since turning over play-calling duties to coordinator Bill Lazor.
The Bears have scored 30 points or more in four consecutiveweeks, the running game is rolling, the offensive line has been stabilized with the promotion of Sam Mustipher and Alex Bars— a pair of undrafted free agents fromNotreDame signed in 2019— and quarterback Mitch Trubisky is playing his best football in four years.
The Bears rank 18th in scoring at 23.7
points per game, a considerable accomplishment considering where theywere mired at midseason. Nagy kept the locker roomfocused during the team’sworst losing streak since 2002, also not a small accomplishment.
It seems most likely the Bears will choose to keep the regime in place in 2021. While an ugly loss to the Packers could reshape thinking, it’s not in the team’s nature to fire a coach with two years remaining on his contract. Marc Trestman is the only coach to be axed with that much time left on his deal, and whatever issues the team currently faces, it’s not as messy as itwas at the end of that 2014 season.
Another possibilitywould be retaining Nagy and replacing Pace, whose biggest failure came in the 2017 draft when he traded up to pick Trubisky atNo. 2 and passed on PatrickMahomes and Deshaun Watson. But the Bears are 25-12 in Trubisky’s regular-season starts since the beginning of the 2018 season, and the failure ofNick Foles to stabilize the offense this season requires blame to be spread equally between Pace andNagy.
Maybe the Bears could pursue a GM interested in pairing withNagy, but that could create an awkward situation if the team regresses in 2021. The Bears finally have paid the bill for the KhalilMack trade and have draft capital to followup on a productive 2020 draft that produced cornerback Jaylon Johnson, tight end Cole Kmet and wide receiver Darnell Mooney.
Maintaining the course with Pace and Nagy while at least six other franchises (the Falcons, Panthers, Lions, Texans, Jaguars andWashington) seek a new general managerwould provide continuity. Good luck identifying seven can’t-missGM candidates in this cycle.
Remember, McCaskey had the faith in Pace to charge him with overseeing an expansion project atHalasHall that produced one of the more dazzling headquarters in the NFL at a price tag that had to exceed $100 million. Hewouldn’t hand over that kind of responsibility to someone he doesn’t have a high degree of faith in.
At the end of his 10th season atop the organization, McCaskey certainly will have thoughts regarding howthe operation has run this year. Ultimately those are the ones that count most in the coming days and weeks.