Study: Four suburban counties enjoy growth
Show gains in population while state loses residents
“If (businesses) feel that they can’t find people to fill the jobs, they’re probably going to look somewhere else where they feel that they can.” — Brian Harger, senior research specialist at Northern Illinois University’s Center for Governmental Studies
Only nine Illinois counties grew in population over the past decade and four of them were in the west and southwest suburbs — Kane, DuPage, Kendall and Will counties, an analysis from a Chicago planning agency shows.
Still, the population of the Chicago metro area overall was largely stagnant, the study, from the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, shows. And that will have repercussions for the entire region, including the counties that grew, planning experts said.
“I think it says, to me, that we need to think about modernizing some of the structures that we have in place,” said Erin Aleman, executive director of CMAP.
The study showed the Chicago region as a whole was estimated to have lost 4,279 people between 2010 and 2019, a 0.05% decrease. The region, with a population of nearly 8.5 million, includes Cook and the five collar counties plus Kendall County.
Over the same time period, DuPage County grew by 2,575 people, or 0.28%. Will County grew by 7,207, or 1.06%, and Kane County grew by 9,502 people, or 1.82%.
Kendall County saw the highest rate of increase of any Illinois county, growing by 6.65%, or 7,860 people.
The remainder of the counties that grew were to the south of the Chicago area and farther downstate: Grundy, Champaign, Monroe, Williamson and McLean counties, according to CMAP.
Meanwhile, estimates showed Illinois lost more than 243,000 residents, or 1.89% of the population, between 2010 and 2020. Only West Virginia lost a greater share of its population
during that time, the CMAP analysis showed.
“It’s just sort of shocking to see that we’re at the bottom, here,” Aleman said.
The analysis was based on U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Results of the 2020 Census are not yet available.
Brian Harger, senior research specialist at Northern Illinois University’s Center for Governmental
Studies, said statewide figures indicate Illinois is losing younger people, such as those in the middle of their careers or who are beginning to enter the workforce, he said.
In the past, many of downstate Illinois’ population losses were offset by growth in the Chicago area but that trend appears to have stalled. For many parts
of the state the figures are a continuation of long-term trends of population and job losses, and that poses challenges for the future, he said.
To keep people in the state, they need job opportunities, he said. But to bring in new jobs, businesses must see there are people nearby able to work.
“If (businesses) feel that
they can’t find people to fill the jobs, they’re probably going to look somewhere else where they feel that they can,” he said. “So the two are tied together. And it really is sort of a chicken and egg thing, too.”
Growth in Kane, DuPage, Kendall and Will is likely tied to people already in the region moving farther into the suburbs, he said, and to better job growth in the Chicago area than elsewhere in the state.
The four counties’ growth may be beneficial for the individual counties, but it wasn’t significant enough to offset challenges for the state as a whole, he said.
The growth wasn’t surprising to Aleman, who said those counties have been gaining residents quickly for some time. But the remainder of the Chicago region failed to grow along with the four counties.
Among other trends, she said, population losses have historically been offset by immigration and the Chicago region experienced slower growth of its Hispanic population than other major metropolitan areas.
Rethinking some issues such as taxes and transportation could help the region and the state be more competitive, Aleman said.
“The way that we move and get around our communities is different,” she said. “And the way we get goods, especially right now with many people getting them delivered. Traditional sources of revenue just aren’t meeting our current needs.”
Transportation, in particular, is a focus for Aleman. Improving the way people and goods get around the region could have far-reaching consequences, she said, suggesting measures to improve bus service and address traffic.
“If we want people to be able to get to good-paying jobs, and if we want this region to sustain economic growth, it’s making sure that not only are there jobs but that there’s access,” she said. “Especially for low and middle-income wage earners who might have to live in Cook (County) and need to get to Will (County) and the opportunity to do that is like, three buses and two hours later.”