Stores expect strong sales as children head back to school
NEW YORK — As more children go back to the physical classroom and families look to restart their lives, back-to-school spending this year could top pre-pandemic levels, according to one key spending measure.
Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment forms including cash, forecasts that spending will be up 5.5% between July 15 and Sept. 6. That’s compared with the year-ago period when sales were up 1.2% as the pandemic wreaked havoc on schools’ reopening plans and back-to-school shopping.
In a more telling sign of a rebound, back-to-school sales should increase 6.7% on a two-year basis, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. The figures exclude sales from autos and gas.
Last year, parents focused their spending online and bought supplies and electronics to help their children set up work stations at home. When it came to apparel, they limited their purchases to sweatpants and other comfy clothes for their kids and avoided department stores.
The rosy forecast issued this week comes as retailers, particularly mall-based stores, are seeing a strong recovery as newly vaccinated shoppers feel safe going out and socializing.
On Wednesday, the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, sharply revised its annual outlook for retail sales. It now expects the increase to be anywhere from 10.5% to 13.5% compared to an earlier forecast made in February of at least 6.5%.
While NRF noted risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and overregulation, it pointed out that overall households are healthier, and consumers are showing their ability and willingness to spend.
The downside is that many retailers may not be able to fully capitalize.
For many items produced overseas, stores had to place their orders at least six months ago, and they were conservative, says Steve Sadove, senior adviser for Mastercard and former CEO and chairman of Saks Inc. He also cited the logjam at ports, making it difficult for retailers to bring in goods to their stores.
“The supply chain is backed up. The ports are backed up,” he said. “You’re going to find scarcity.”
He said that a number of retailers he has spoken to are having to air ship items to have them in stores in time for back-to-school.
For this back-to-school season, Sadove said clothing should enjoy a stronger-than-expected rebound, with Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasting a 78.2% sales increase compared with last year. On a two-year basis, the figure is expected to be up 11.3%.
Department stores are enjoying a solid recovery after struggling last year with stiff competition from discount stores like Walmart and Target. The department sector’s sales should be up 25.3% during the back-toschool period, compared to a year ago. Sales should rise 9.5% on a two-year basis.