Pritzker basing stronger mandates on the science
But politics also come into play in how governor handles pandemic
Barely a month and a half ago, Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced his bid for reelection after waiting for a point where there was notable easing of the pandemic that had defined his governorship and made his handling of the crisis the central theme of his campaign.
But on Thursday, spurred by the spread of the COVID-19 delta variant among the unvaccinated, Pritzker found himself imposing a universal mask mandate such as he did in April of last year, in the early days of the pandemic before vaccines, and mandating vaccinations among health care workers, educators and staff and college students, following earlier orders requiring state workers in congregate settings to get the shot.
It was an acknowledgment that while a majority of Illinois residents have received the vaccine, not enough had done so, and that the delta variant had placed severe risks on the state’s hospital system, created more breakthrough cases among the vaccinated,
led to more hospitalizations among younger people as schools and colleges reopened, and that the majority of hospitalizations and deaths were among the unvaccinated.
Were his campaign reelection ads dealing with the pandemic using the theme “strong leadership in tough times” and giving an air of “Mission Accomplished” too premature?
“Oh, no. That’s not the case. I’ll just say, No. 1, I think one of the messages here has been that the people of Illinois actually have done most of the work here to keep people safe. It’s they who are wearing masks. It’s they who are getting vaccinated,” Pritzker said in response to a reporter’s question.
“To the extent that there’s any advertising about it, it’s really just about leadership. It’s about just reminding people that when you’re in a crisis, it takes real leaders to step up and lead and do the right thing,” he said.
As much as Pritzker has said he has based his response on science, pandemic politics also comes into play.
His recent order was a direct shot primarily at Republican conservatives in pockets of the suburbs and throughout rural Downstate who oppose vaccinations and masking just as they sought to fight his early mitigation efforts, including stay-at-home orders and closed business and entertainment venues, as a restriction of their personal freedom.
With the election more than a year away and lacking a defined Republican front-runner to challenge him, Pritzker’s moves are only likely to further alienate voters who weren’t going to vote for him next year, political experts say, while appealing to voters who have complied with masking and vaccination policies and recommendations and are frustrated with those who have not.
“Sometimes you have to lose some voters to gain supporters in politics,” said David Yepsen, who formerly headed the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University in Carbondale.
“He looks decisive. He looks tough. He looks like he’s gonna crack down,” Yepsen said. “He has to try to strike an almost Churchillian pose here of telling people some things they don’t want to hear but get people to cooperate together to solve this public pandemic. It’s tough. Nobody wants to be hearing this stuff. We all thought this thing was over.”
Christopher Mooney, a political scientist at the University of Illinois at Chicago, said the federal Food and Drug Administration’s full approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for people ages 16 and older on Monday was “a game changer” for Pritzker to be able to impose vaccine mandates, which the governor has indicated could be expanded to all state employees in the future.
Data from the Illinois Department of Public Health on Friday demonstrated a tale of two states, also divided politically, between the urbanized Chicago area and south central and southern Illinois.
A total of 61% of the state’s population ages 18 and older are fully vaccinated while nearly 78% have received at least one dose of the Pfizer or Moderna two-shot vaccination or the Johnson & Johnson one-shot dosage.
But IDPH statistics Downstate, a region that has turned deeply Republican in recent decades as union coal mine jobs and manufacturing have faded, show the failure to embrace Pritzker’s call for vaccination.
In the counties south of Springfield’s Sangamon County, only one, Monroe, bordering St. Louis, has reported more than half of its residents being fully vaccinated. Several run in the 25% to 35% range, with Alexander County at the southern tip of the state, which saw the nation’s largest drop in population according to recent federal census results, reporting 16.2% of its residents fully vaccinated.
The southern region also has shown the highest rate of COVID-19 infections and has a severe shortage of intensive care unit beds and services available, state health officials said.
Among the politicians who represent those areas are freshman U.S. Republican Rep. Mary Miller of Oakland, who has touted paying fines for refusing orders to wear a mask on the floor of the U.S. House, and state Sen. Darren Bailey of Xenia, a GOP candidate for governor who was voted off the Illinois House floor a year ago for refusing to wear a mask.
In contrast to Downstate, in Chicago, suburban Cook County and the collar counties, fully vaccinated residents make up more than half the population, with nearly 63% of DuPage County fully vaccinated, IDPH statistics show.
The Chicago metropolitan area represents the bulk of where votes are cast in statewide elections, and the collar counties, once a Republican firewall for Democratic votes out of the city, have been growing more and more Democratic.
Pritzker’s decision to require vaccinations of preschool through high school teachers and staff, as well as his earlier mandate of masking in grade and high schools, also could play well to a suburban demographic critical in statewide elections — women.
“Moms are very concerned and scared. You see that all over the country. Schools are inconsistent, policies are inconsistent and it’s creating confusion. Passions are starting to run high,” said Yepsen, a former national correspondent for the Des Moines Register. “This is a constituency that should appreciate a governor taking a tough stand.”
Pritzker has responded to some sporadic local school board protests over his masking policy by threatening to cut off state financial aid.
That’s in stark contrast to Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, viewed as a potential GOP presidential contender in 2024, and other GOP governors who have threatened to cut off state funds to districts that enacted masking policies amid an increase in COVID19 cases among youth. A Florida judge on Friday tossed the DeSantis mask ban, but his administration is expected to appeal.
Mooney said Pritzker has “made his bet” with science in his decision making and “it’s probably a good bet really at this point” since the governor can point to experts at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and local virologists and immunologists who can provide him with cover to rebut critics questioning the efficacy of masks and vaccination.
Still, Mooney noted, the science on the pandemic has undergone some changes as the COVID-19 virus and its variants receive more study, and that has frustrated a public looking for consistency.
“Most leaders who are actually being effective … realize science is not like the Bible. It’s not coming down from God. It’s a process and, especially when you get something new, it can change. And that change thing can drive people crazy all across the country because they want to know what to do,” Mooney said.
Yepsen agreed, saying “the science on this is changing so quickly that it’s hard for policymakers to come up with a consistent message. I mean, we’re just learning now that everybody should have a third shot in months. So this causes confusion.”
In making his announcement, Pritzker poked at Republicans opposed to his handling of the pandemic as well as potential GOP candidates for governor who have not endorsed vaccinations and, in some cases, spread misinformation
“If you’re an elected leader or from one of those highly infected communities, and you’re spending your time resisting masks instead of working to get your people vaccinated, then your definition of public service looks a whole lot different from mine,” he said.
Republicans have criticized Pritzker for his executive orders mandating mitigations for the pandemic, with Bailey, who has unsuccessfully fought the governor’s orders, labeling Pritzker a “tyrant” in refusing legislative input into his decisions.
But Democrats who control the General Assembly have ceded authority to Pritzker for handling the pandemic, refusing calls for more legislative involvement, and are content to let him take responsibility.
Pritzker also knows he has gained some political cover for his actions from private sector businesses, typically aligned with Republicans, who have been enacting their own vaccine mandates — some with the threat of making people get a shot or lose their job.
“A number of employers across the state have already instituted vaccine mandates and others can and should take this critical health and safety step so that we can finally bring this pandemic to an end,” Pritzker said. “We have a tool in our hands that will save lives. We are at a crossroads.”
But like the rapid surge in the delta variant, there are no assurances how things will play out in the months ahead leading to the June 28 primary and Nov. 8 general election.
“Things are in such a state of flux, God knows what it’s going to be like this time next year — politically and medically,” Mooney said.