Wanted: Fewer whiffs
Wisdom gave Cubs taste of power in rookie year, but he needs to cut down on number of strikeouts
Cubs third baseman Patrick Wisdom tried to embrace the special moments during his record-setting rookie season — even if his accomplishments still hadn’t fully hit him amid the daily grind.
Wisdom’s breakout 2021 performance included scorching hot streaks and setting a Cubs rookie home run record after surpassing Kris Bryant’s mark.
However, with those highs came lows — namely, strikeouts that were hard to ignore through extended slumps.
“It’s brought up a lot because it’s part of the game,” Wisdom told the Tribune during the last week of the season. “It’s what you see when you look at my stats, so I can’t argue against them.
“It’s something that irks me deep down, but I try not to let it show.”
For Wisdom, it’s about learning the how behind his strikeouts, though “understanding that hasn’t been easy, honestly … like, dang, put the ball in play.”
Great things happened when Wisdom made contact.
His .318 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) and .287 Isolated Power (ISO), which calculates a hitter’s raw power through extra-base hits, were among the best in baseball. Only nine hitters (minimum 350 plate appearances) produced a better ISO while just four other big leaguers — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. — yielded a higher combination of BABIP and ISO. While there is some luck involved in BABIP, Wisdom clearly benefits when he puts the ball in play.
However, that’s easier said than done, as evident by his league-high 40.8 K%.
“I think it’s between my ears more than the way I stand in the box or grip the bat,” Wisdom said. “It’s your approach, the way you think they’re going to throw to you and what you’re anticipating and if you’re in between, it’s tough to hit. Guys throw so hard and they’ve got nasty breaking stuff, so you’re putting yourself even more at a disadvantage.”
Wisdom credited third-base coach Willie Harris and quality assurance coach Mike Napoli for helping him try to slow down and make it black or white. Instead of saying, don’t swing at this pitch or don’t chase that, the messaging centered on looking for a specific pitch in a particular zone or locking in on just one zone.
Wisdom received feedback from Cubs hitting coaches that his swing and mechanics were good, which encouraged him.
“Now it’s just what are we swinging at that puts you in the bad position that makes you think your swing isn’t good,” Wisdom said.
When evaluating Wisdom’s rookie season, the combination of traditional and advanced metrics features statistical rarities. Wisdom is one of only two players since 1916 to play in at least 50% of his team’s games while slugging at least .515 with an OPS+ above 115 but hitting no higher than .235 and with an on-base percentage lower than .310, according to Stathead. The other instance also occurred in 2021: Tampa Bay Rays catcher Mike Zunino.
While those numbers might seem like arbitrary cutoffs, they highlight how hard it is to produce what Wisdom did last season with regular playing time — incredible power, if he made enough contact to do damage. After getting called up in late May, Wisdom finished with a .231/.305/.518 slash line, 117 OPS+, 28 home runs and a 40.8 K% in 375 plate appearances.
The frequency at which Wisdom strikes out while playing almost daily seems unsustainable over a full season. One of those has to give. For Wisdom to fill a meaningful role in the Cubs lineup, it’s hard to envision another season with that strikeout rate.
Wisdom’s 2.2092 at-bats per strikeout in 2021 is the highest AB/SO rate in a single season in MLB history (minimum/ 325 at-bats). Given his extreme strikeout/ power tendency, Wisdom ideally would be utilized as the fourth or fifth best hitter in a lineup. Without adding anyone else this offseason, the Cubs will be relying on Wisdom to be a significant piece in the middle of the order.
The Cubs aren’t expected to be a World Series favorite as currently constructed, which allows for more leeway.
“It’s how we look at things and what we look at, there is a lot of good even though that umbrella of the strikeout rate is there, it’s hard to ignore,” Wisdom said. “But if we look at some of the good things and the positives it helps me and it helps (me) keep moving forward.”
A big question surrounding Wisdom is whether he can trim his strikeout rate. Twenty-eight big-leaguers recorded a K% of at least 28%, including some of baseball’s best hitters. So while cutting down the strikeouts is a priority, Wisdom can be a viable everyday player, even with a K-rate around 30% given his power numbers.
“It’s a hard thing when you try to deconstruct a player,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said after the season. “Yes, the strikeout rate is high and obviously we wish it was lower. But the impact is real. His power is real, and it was unbelievably fun watching him play.”
In a 2021 season lacking memorable moments, or at least many good memorable moments, Wisdom certainly took advantage of an unexpected opportunity. How his role evolves this season could be dictated by whether he consistently makes more contact.