Latest poll: Trump edge over Biden nearly gone
Age, economy, wars, immigration remain hot topics
President Joe Biden has nearly erased Donald Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age, according to a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
Biden and Trump are now virtually tied, with Trump holding a 46% to 45% edge. That is an improvement for Biden from late February, when Trump had a sturdier 48% to 43% lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.
Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago.
The tightening poll results are the latest evidence of a 2024 contest that both campaigns are preparing to be excruciatingly close.
Beneath the narrowing contest, many of the fundamentals of the race appear largely unchanged.
The share of voters who view the nation as headed in the wrong direction remains a high 64%. Almost 80% of voters still rate the nation’s economic conditions as fair or poor, including a majority of Democrats. And Biden and Trump remain unpopular, for familiar reasons. Most voters think Biden is too old. A majority believe Trump has committed serious federal crimes.
Yet, despite the potential for the Republican nominee to face jail time, only 1 in 4 voters said they were paying very close attention to Trump’s legal travails.
The Biden campaign, which has already begun advertising in battleground states, has hoped the reality of a potential second Trump term will snap reluctant Democrats back toward their typical partisan posture. There is some initial evidence of that happening.
In the past month, Biden’s support among white voters remained flat, but it has inched upward among Black and Latino voters, even if it still lags behind traditional levels of Democratic support. Biden was faring better than he had been a month ago in suburbs and among women, although he was weaker among men. Younger voters remain a persistent weakness, while older voters provide a source of relative strength for the Democratic president.
Age, however, remains a political albatross for Biden.
Sixty-nine percent of voters still see the 81-yearold Democrat as too old to be an effective president. Trump, who turns 78 in June, would also be the oldest president in American history if elected. But voters do not have the same doubts about his capacity to serve, with only 41% viewing him as too old.
There was one notable shift in the past month. Among voters who are older than 65, the share who view Biden as too old has dropped significantly.
The economy continues to be a drag for Biden, who has tried to frame his “bottom up and middle out” job agenda under the banner of “Bidenomics.” Young voters are especially sour, with more than 85% rating the economy poor or fair.
Voters in the poll gave Trump’s and Biden’s handling of the economy almost perfectly inverted ratings: 64% approved of Trump’s handling of the issue as president and 63% disapprove of Biden’s job on the issue now.
Immigration gave Trump his other biggest edge among a host of issues voters were asked about in the survey. Border crossings hit record highs at the end of last year. A slim majority approved of Trump’s handling of immigration as president, while 64% of voters disapproved of Biden’s job on those matters.
In the poll, Biden was given better ratings than Trump on his ability to unite the nation and his handling of race relations and the pandemic.
But with the war in Ukraine dragging into its third year after Russia’s invasion and the civilian death toll rising in the Gaza Strip from Israel’s assault after the Oct. 7 terror attack by Hamas, voters gave Trump significantly higher marks on his handling of foreign conflicts.
Only 36% approve of Biden’s managing of those conflicts, with especially glaring weaknesses among younger voters. Only 4% of voters younger than 45 strongly approve of his job on such international matters.
The generational differences on foreign affairs were notable. Although voters of all ages viewed Trump similarly, Biden received far worse ratings from voters younger than 45, 70% of whom disapproved. Among those who are 45 and older, 53% disapproved.
Equal segments (31%) of respondents said Biden and Trump were “good for democracy.” The number who said Trump was “bad for democracy” (45%) only slightly outpaced those who said the same of Biden.