AUKUS sparks nuclear proliferation fears

The trilateral security pact between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, known as AUKUS, violates rules on global nonproliferation and undermines regional and world peace and stability, analysts say, even though the three countries have said they would comply with nonproliferation obligations and commitments.

The White House issued a statement recently saying the three countries held inaugural meetings of the AUKUS Trilateral Joint Steering Groups at the Pentagon in Washington on Dec 9 and 14.

The participants reaffirmed their commitment to bring Australia’s capabilities into service at the earliest possible date and agreed on the next steps in an 18-month consultation period to define the best pathway for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

The participants also discussed how they will work to ensure that “the submarine program upholds their long-standing leadership in global nonproliferation”, including through continued close consultation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, the statement said.

The three countries remain steadfast in supporting the nuclear nonproliferation regime and its cornerstone, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and the participants will comply with their nonproliferation obligations, the statement said.

When the US, the UK and Australia announced the establishment of AUKUS in September, they said the US and UK will transfer technology to

Australia to enable it to build nuclearpowered submarines.

Xu Liping, director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, or CASS, said the US has branded itself “a defender of rules-based international order”, but it failed to explain on which rules AUKUS was established. So the legitimacy of the AUKUS is questionable, he said.

Collaboration on nuclear submarines under AUKUS poses a serious risk of nuclear proliferation, and clearly violates the aims of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, he said.

Xu said AUKUS is a genuine military alliance system that is exclusive and will bring new challenges to regional and even global security.

It may also cause a regional arms race and more tensions in the South China Sea, and have a negative impact on the nuclear-free weaponization of the ASEAN region.

The ultimate goal behind the political moves is to seek economic benefits, he said. The US and the UK want to beef up the military presence in the region so they can manipulate smaller countries and draw economic benefits from them.

Containing China’s influence in the region and disrupting its economic collaboration with other countries is another goal.

Tian Dewen, deputy director of the Institute of European Studies at CASS, said Australia’s pursuit of nuclear submarines is dangerous and will seriously affect the international nuclear nonproliferation regime.

The chaotic withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan in August without properly consulting its allies demonstrated US unilateralism and the country’s unreliability as a partner, he said. Thus, US allies in the Asia-Pacific not in AUKUS may also make certain moves to ensure that the pact does not threaten their interests.

Koh King Kee, president of the Centre for New Inclusive Asia in Malaysia, said AUKUS has triggered great concern among ASEAN countries because the pact will break the security balance in the region.

All ASEAN member states are signatories to the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, or SEANWFZ, which is committed to keeping nuclear weapons out of the region. “The formation of AUKUS is an obvious challenge to the spirit of SEANWFZ,” Koh said.

Of the 10 ASEAN countries, Malaysia and Indonesia have voiced the strongest objections to AUKUS, Koh said.